广信股份（603599）：多菌灵迎价格拐点，静待新品贡献增量

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 14.4 CNY [1][6]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a price turning point for its core product, Mancozeb, and is anticipated to see contributions from new products in the future [1][6]. - The agricultural pesticide industry is showing signs of recovery, with improved sales volumes and pricing expected in the coming periods [6][7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2024A: 4,643 million CNY, -20.9% YoY - 2025E: 5,367 million CNY, +15.6% YoY - 2026E: 6,092 million CNY, +13.5% YoY - 2027E: 6,849 million CNY, +12.4% YoY [2][7] - Net Profit Forecast: - 2024A: 779 million CNY, -45.9% YoY - 2025E: 875 million CNY, +12.4% YoY - 2026E: 1,066 million CNY, +21.9% YoY - 2027E: 1,237 million CNY, +16.0% YoY [2][7] - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2024A: 0.86 CNY - 2025E: 0.96 CNY - 2026E: 1.17 CNY - 2027E: 1.36 CNY [2][7] - Valuation Ratios: - Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 13, 11, 9, and 8 for 2024A, 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively [2][7]. Market Performance - The company has experienced a significant decline of 34% over the past year, compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [5]. Product Insights - The company’s main pesticide raw materials saw a sales volume increase of 37.16% YoY in 2024, despite a price drop of 33.78% [6][7]. - The price of Mancozeb is expected to rise from 32,800 CNY/ton to 37,000 CNY/ton, indicating a positive trend for the company's performance [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The company is positioned to leverage its integrated capabilities and cost advantages, with a strong return on equity (ROE) and significant cash reserves for capital expenditures [6][7]. - The adjusted profit expectations for 2025-2027 are 875 million CNY, 1,066 million CNY, and 1,237 million CNY respectively, with a corresponding P/E of 11, 9, and 8 [6][7].