宏观量化经济指数周报20250511：特别国债发行前置或推升4月社融增速-20250511

Economic Indicators - The weekly ECI supply index is at 50.25%, up 0.01 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.93%, down 0.01 percentage points[6] - The monthly ECI supply index decreased by 0.10 percentage points from April, while the demand index increased by 0.02 percentage points[7] - The real estate sector shows a recovery with a 2.0% year-on-year increase in sales area for 30 major cities, compared to a -12.1% decline in April[6] Financing and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -1.00%, up 0.06 percentage points, indicating a potential increase in social financing growth due to the issuance of special government bonds[11] - In April 2025, new RMB loans are expected to be between 700 billion and 750 billion, remaining stable compared to the previous year[14] - The expected social financing scale for April is between 1.5 trillion and 1.6 trillion, with a projected growth rate of 8.8% due to a low base effect from the previous year[14] Export and Trade - The U.S. signals a potential easing of tariffs, with Trump stating that the 145% tariffs on China are unsustainable, which may support short-term export growth[6] - The "grab transfer" phenomenon is expected to support export growth in the second quarter, despite long-term risks related to U.S. manufacturing repatriation[6] Inflation and Prices - Brent crude oil prices have decreased to $62.05 per barrel, down $1.28 from the previous week, indicating a continued decline in oil prices[38] - The average wholesale price of pork is at 20.88 CNY/kg, up 0.17 CNY/kg, while the price of 28 monitored vegetables is at 4.38 CNY/kg, down 0.10 CNY/kg[38] Market Operations - The central bank conducted 836.1 billion CNY in reverse repos, resulting in a net withdrawal of 781.7 billion CNY for the week[41]