交通运输行业周报：国内客货运平稳增长，油运受益地缘催化-20250511

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The logistics sector shows stable growth, with national logistics operations running smoothly during the monitoring period. The total cargo transported by national railways reached 77.88 million tons, a 3% increase month-on-month. The total number of trucks on highways was 56.75 million, up 2.25% month-on-month. The total express delivery volume was approximately 4.075 billion pieces, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.16% [4][5] - The "May Day" holiday saw a record high in express delivery volume, with over 4.8 billion packages delivered, marking a year-on-year growth of over 20%. This indicates a robust development trend in China's consumer market [5] - The transportation of people during the "May Day" holiday also showed stable growth, with a total of 1.466 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 7.9% [5] Summary by Sections Air Transportation - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for upward movement. Current booking data suggests a short-term rebound, presenting investment value [11] - The aircraft supply chain faces challenges with OEM and MRO capacity, leading to a shortage of second-hand aircraft. The interest rate spread for aircraft leasing is expected to widen in the context of U.S. debt interest rate cuts [11] - Key companies to watch include China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and HNA Group [11][12] Express Delivery - The demand for express delivery remains resilient, with terminal prices at historical low levels, limiting downward space. Leading companies in the sector are seen as having sufficient safety margins in valuation [11] - Companies like SF Express and JD Logistics are expected to benefit from cyclical recovery and ongoing cost reductions, with significant performance elasticity [12] Shipping and Vessels - The oil tanker market is expected to see sustained improvement in the next three years due to limited new orders and an aging fleet, alongside increased oil trade sanctions from the U.S. [11] - The dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover, driven by environmental regulations and upcoming production from major iron ore mines [11] - Companies to focus on include China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation [11]