美国4月CPI前瞻：开始验收关税冲击幅度

Group 1: Trade Agreements and Economic Impact - The US and UK announced a trade agreement reducing tariffs on certain goods, including automobiles, steel, and aluminum, while maintaining a 10% tariff on most UK imports[2] - The US-China high-level talks on May 11 signal a potential easing of tensions, with Trump suggesting a possible reduction of tariffs on China to 80%[2] - The trade negotiations are complex, with the US maintaining a trade surplus with the UK, limiting the broader implications for other trade discussions[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators and CPI Forecast - The April CPI is expected to show a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, with core CPI expected to rise by 0.3% and 2.8% respectively[4] - The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectation rose to 3.63%, while the three-year expectation increased from 3% to 3.17%[3] - The April ISM Services PMI reached 51.6, indicating growth, while the trade deficit widened by 14% to $140.5 billion in March[3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Following trade agreement news, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose by 7.01 basis points to 4.378%, and the dollar index strengthened by 0.31% to 100.34[3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices saw declines of 0.47% and 0.27% respectively, while gold prices increased by 2.61% to $3,325 per ounce[3] - The overall market sentiment improved due to trade negotiations, leading to a narrowing of stock market losses[3] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Stance - Powell emphasized the inflation risks posed by tariffs, indicating that the Fed will be cautious about interest rate cuts[3] - The Fed maintained its interest rate level during the May FOMC meeting, reflecting concerns over economic uncertainty and stagflation risks[3] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a 2.3% growth for Q2 2025, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates a 2.42% growth[3]