牛初震荡期可能延长

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates a shift from optimism to high-level fluctuations due to the complexity of U.S. tariffs, suggesting that the current market fluctuation is an extension of the volatility observed since October 8, 2024, with a potential breakthrough later this year driven by policy and capital [2][9]. - The report suggests that the initial phase of the bull market typically experiences a rapid rise followed by a period of consolidation lasting six months to a year, but the recent tariff shocks have introduced more disturbances, making a six-month optimistic scenario less likely and increasing the probability of a one-year fluctuation [3][10]. - It is noted that during the fluctuation period, the economy may be weaker than at the lowest point of the bear market, but the market is unlikely to revert to a bear market, as the extended fluctuation is primarily due to high uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs, which has led to pessimistic profit expectations [3][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines three potential scenarios for the upcoming quarter: a pessimistic scenario where a larger unexpected shock could lead the market back to April's lows, a neutral scenario where tariffs gradually impact the economy leading to narrow fluctuations for 1-2 quarters, and an optimistic scenario where successful U.S.-China negotiations could prevent further downturns [20][26]. - The analysis indicates that the recent tariff shocks are likely to prolong the fluctuation period without altering the overall bull market trend, drawing parallels to past events such as the 2013 liquidity crisis and the early 2020 pandemic [27][30]. - The report emphasizes that the market's rebound is expected to be limited in scope due to the recent tariff impacts, with a potential for a small pullback from late May to July, but the overall market valuation remains low, suggesting that the recent lows may represent a significant support level [30][34]. Group 3 - The report provides a configuration suggestion favoring value-oriented sectors such as banking, real estate, and military industry, while also highlighting the potential for new consumption models and sectors benefiting from geopolitical dynamics [32][30]. - It is noted that the market's performance this week saw significant gains in indices such as the ChiNext 50 and the ChiNext Index, with defense and military sectors leading the gains, while real estate and electronics showed smaller increases [33][34]. - The report mentions that the recent inflow of capital into the A-share market, particularly from foreign investors, is based on recognition of policy, long-term valuation, and industry trends, which may stabilize the market [9][3].