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Industry Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the coal industry from a global energy perspective, highlighting the interactions between China's coal balance and the ex-China balance, the historical linkage between oil and coal, and the impact of energy transitions in Europe and Asia [5][10][25][36] Summary by Sections Global Coal Balance and China's Interaction - The coal balances of China and ex-China have been interacting significantly post the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with ex-China balance dominating from 2021 to 2022 due to the European energy crisis and rising natural gas prices, leading to a rebound in European coal imports [10] - From 2023 to 2024, China's coal balance regained dominance, with coal imports increasing from 290 million tons in 2022 to 540 million tons in 2024, absorbing excess supply from ex-China [10] Global Energy Structure and Coal Market Overview - In 2023, coal, oil, and natural gas accounted for 26%, 32%, and 23% of global primary energy consumption, respectively, while renewable energy made up 8% [13] - The trend indicates a decarbonization process, with coal's share declining in developed regions but increasing in other countries [13] Consumer Countries - Europe - Europe's coal and natural gas shares in the power generation mix are expected to decline, with coal generation projected to drop to 260 TWh in 2024, a 2.2% decrease year-on-year [25] - The report estimates that European coal imports will continue to decrease, with a forecast of 10.774 million tons in 2024, down 3,179 million tons from the previous year [29] Consumer Countries - India - India's total electricity generation is expected to grow, with coal maintaining a dominant share of approximately 74% in the energy mix [39] - Coal production in India is projected to reach 103.904 million tons in 2024, with a growth rate of 7% [43] Consumer Countries - Southeast Asia - Southeast Asia is identified as a major driver of coal demand, with coal accounting for nearly 80% of the region's energy needs since 2010 [52] - The report anticipates a 1.7 million ton increase in coal imports in Southeast Asia by 2025, driven by recovering demand [53] Producer Countries - Indonesia - Indonesia's coal production is projected to reach 786.456 million tons in 2025, with a significant portion allocated for export [67] - The report highlights that Indonesia's domestic coal demand is primarily driven by metallurgical coal, which may impact the export of thermal coal [69] Producer Countries - Australia - Australia's coal production is expected to remain stable, with a projected output of 558.474 million tons in 2025 [80] - The report notes that Australia is a key player in global coal expansion, with 62% of new projects aimed at export [81] Producer Countries - Russia - Russia's coal exports are anticipated to decrease by approximately 12 million tons in 2025 due to sanctions and competitive disadvantages [83] - The report indicates that Russia's coal production is heavily influenced by domestic consumption and export demand dynamics [88] Producer Countries - United States - The U.S. coal production is projected to decline to 496.784 million tons in 2025, reflecting a decrease in domestic demand [104] - The report suggests that U.S. coal exports may remain stable, particularly for metallurgical coal, despite overall production declines [107]