A股策略周报20250511：修复之后，关注变化-20250511

Group 1 - The report indicates that the potential weakening of the economy is about to be validated, and expectations for policy implementation will take time to materialize. The recent recovery in global markets, driven by easing trade tensions, appears to be temporary, with asset volatility likely to increase again. Both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown signs of hitting a "ceiling" as they approached levels from April 2, 2025, before retreating [1][9][12] - A-shares have seen a significant disparity in performance among secondary industries, with the top 10 gaining industries averaging 10% overseas revenue exposure, while the bottom 10 losing industries averaged 8%. This suggests that further recovery in A-shares may require either positive signals from trade improvements or new domestic demand policies [1][12][14] - The report highlights that the consumption sector has three sources of returns: net profit growth, increased dividend payout ratios, and valuation appreciation. Traditional consumer assets with stable business models and high ROE can benefit from a long-term mechanism aimed at expanding domestic demand [3][41][46] Group 2 - The report discusses a potential shift in market style towards financial stability and large-cap stocks, driven by the recent regulatory changes from the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at promoting high-quality development of public funds. This may lead fund managers to align their portfolios more closely with benchmarks to avoid underperformance [2][34][39] - The consumption sector's performance has been relatively flat, with a year-to-date increase of only 0.78%. This is attributed to reasonable valuations and a balance between profit share and market capitalization share, limiting the potential for significant short-term gains [3][41][42] - The report identifies specific consumer sub-sectors with high ROE (greater than 7%) that are likely to provide stable returns. These include white goods, automobiles, and communication services, which can benefit from both profit growth and increased dividend payout ratios [3][46]