国泰君安期货研究周报：农产品-20250511

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: The risk at the origin has not been fully released, and it may continue to decline before entering a bottom - oscillation pattern. There is strong support during the decline, and it is necessary to wait for the opportunity to rise in the third quarter [6]. - Soybean oil: Unilateral drive is insufficient, and it runs relatively strongly among varieties. It follows the fluctuations of the palm - oil and US - soybean - oil - led oil and fat sectors and maintains a relatively strong operation among varieties when palm oil is seasonally under - allocated and soybean - oil inventory is low [9]. - Soybean meal: It is expected to be weakly operated in the short term, and the market should wait for the guidance of the USDA report [17][21]. - Soybean: Due to the expectation of state - reserve sales, the futures may be weakly oscillated [17][21]. - Corn: It is expected to run strongly, and the supply - and - demand pattern remains tight [39][43]. - Sugar: It is mainly in the range consolidation, with the international market stabilizing and the domestic market focusing on the narrowing opportunity of the internal - and - external price difference [58][60]. - Cotton: It is expected to oscillate and wait for the fundamental drive, and the market should pay attention to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [86][87]. - Live pigs: The near - end contradictions are still accumulating, and the market is waiting for a direction [111]. Summary According to the Directory Palm Oil - Last Week's View and Logic: The selling pressure at the origin was continuously realized, and it rebounded slightly following crude oil. The 09 contract of palm oil fell 3.22% last week [5]. - This Week's View and Logic: The production in Malaysia in April showed unexpected growth, and the inventory levels in Indonesia and Malaysia were quite different. After the phased selling pressure was released, there was no further resonance - downward trend in the fundamentals. Although it was still seasonally under - allocated, there was strong support during the decline. The market's pricing expectation for palm oil still came from the resumption of production at the origin. The risk at the origin had not been fully released, and palm oil might continue to decline before entering a bottom - oscillation pattern [6]. Soybean Oil - Last Week's View and Logic: It mainly fluctuated following the oil - and - fat sector and international oil prices. The domestic spot - opening situation had not fully relaxed, the soybean - palm price difference continued to rise, and the 09 contract of soybean oil fell 0.66% last week [5]. - This Week's View and Logic: In the international market, funds continued to push up the trading of the US - soybean oil - to - meal ratio. The logic of being long on US soybean oil and short on BMD was still valid. The biggest bullish factor for US soybean oil was the risk premium before the RVO announcement. In the international oil - and - fat supply, attention should be paid to when the new South - American soybean - oil listing would show the price pressure. In the domestic market, if the arrivals in May and June were more than 1.2 billion tons and the opening situation was good, the soybean - oil inventory would accumulate from May to July and might decline after July [7][8]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Last Week's Market Situation: The US - soybean futures prices rose and fell alternately. The domestic soybean - meal futures prices were weakly oscillated, and the soybean futures prices rose first and then fell [17]. - This Week's Forecast: It is expected that the prices of soybean - meal and soybean futures will be weakly operated. The domestic soybean - meal trading may focus on the relaxation of Sino - US trade frictions and the pressure of soybean arrivals in the second quarter. For domestic soybeans, although the market's remaining grains are less and the spot prices are strong, the expectation of state - reserve sales is expected to suppress the upward space of soybean prices [21]. Corn - Market Review: In the spot market, corn prices rose in the week of May 9. In the futures market, the market oscillated after a rapid rise [39][40]. - Market Outlook: CBOT corn prices fell, wheat prices corrected, corn - starch inventories rose, and the corn market was expected to run strongly due to the tight supply - and - demand pattern [40][43]. Sugar - This Week's Market Review: In the international market, the New York raw - sugar active contract price rose 3.18%. In the domestic market, the spot price of Guangxi groups and the Zheng - sugar main contract price both decreased [58][59]. - Next Week's Market Outlook: The international market is expected to stabilize, and the domestic market is mainly in the range consolidation. The domestic market should focus on the narrowing opportunity of the internal - and - external price difference [60]. Cotton - Market Situation: ICE cotton oscillated downward, and the domestic textile industry's operation was stable. The domestic cotton futures were affected by the weak - demand expectation and external - market factors and were expected to oscillate at a low level [86][87]. - Operation Suggestion: ICE cotton is expected to oscillate, and the domestic cotton futures are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The market should pay attention to Xinjiang's weather, textile enterprises' operating rates, and finished - product inventories [109]. Live Pigs - This Week's Market Review: In the spot market, live - pig prices were strongly oscillated. In the futures market, live - pig futures prices were oscillated and adjusted [111]. - Market Outlook: The near - end contradictions are still accumulating, and the market is waiting for a direction [111].