宏观策略周报：指数震荡偏强，重回科技成长主线

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.92% to close at 3,342 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.29% to 10,126.83 points during the week of May 5-9, 2025[7][10][17] - The average daily trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 13,224.69 billion yuan, up 22.16% from the previous week[7][17] Economic Indicators - China's April exports grew by 8.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations of 2.0%[21] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in April decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.15%[23] Policy Developments - A comprehensive financial policy was announced to stabilize the market, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market[20] - The central bank lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points to 1.4%, aiming to reduce financing costs for financial institutions[20] Market Valuation - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of the Wind All A Index is 18.91 times, positioned at the 56.69th percentile historically over the past decade[17] - The market is expected to experience a U-shaped economic growth trajectory in 2025, indicating potential volatility in the near term[17] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors with high growth potential, particularly in the AI industry, which is anticipated to see significant performance releases in mid-2025[17][28] - Consider investments in domestic self-sufficiency sectors and consumer sectors benefiting from domestic demand expansion, especially in services[28]