Orient Securities·2025-05-11 12:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the paper and light industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The light manufacturing industry index increased by 3.02%, outperforming the market by 1.02 percentage points, with the paper sub-sector rising by 2.17%, also surpassing the market by 0.16 percentage points [2][13] - The report highlights that the cultural paper sector is entering an off-peak season, leading to a decline in pulp and paper prices [4] - The report recommends leading companies in the integrated forest-pulp-paper industry, such as Sun Paper (002078, Buy), and suggests focusing on leading special paper companies like Xianhe Co. (603733, Buy) and Huawang Technology (605377, Buy) [4] Summary by Sections Market Review - The light manufacturing industry index rose by 3.02%, while the paper sub-sector increased by 2.17%, ranking 9th among 28 first-level industries [2][13][20] Industry Chain Data Tracking - The report notes a decline in wood pulp product prices, with domestic waste prices slightly increasing by 1.5 CNY/ton, while foreign waste prices decreased by 5-10 USD/ton [9][24] - The average market price for finished paper products saw declines: double glue paper down by 38 CNY/ton, copper plate paper down by 45 CNY/ton, and white card paper down by 48 CNY/ton [39][40][42] Profitability Levels - Profitability in cultural paper is diverging, with small paper companies seeing an increase of 25 CNY/ton in double glue paper, while large companies experienced a decrease of 43 CNY/ton [48][49] - The profitability of packaging paper is declining, with white card paper profitability down by 20-48 CNY/ton [48][51] Production Data - The cumulative production of mechanical paper and paperboard in the first quarter of 2025 reached 38.19 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.8% [57] - The report indicates that the import volume of paper and paperboard decreased by 8.2% year-on-year, while the export volume increased by 10.7% [57]