EBSCN·2025-05-11 13:14Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks remain high, with recent conflicts between India and Pakistan highlighting global uncertainties, leading to a rebound in oil prices. As of May 9, Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 4.0% and 4.6%, respectively, closing at $63.88 and $61.06 per barrel [1][2] - China's dependence on oil imports is projected to be 72% and natural gas imports at 43% in 2024, indicating significant external challenges to energy security amid geopolitical tensions and tariff conflicts. The "Big Three" oil companies in China are responding to national calls for increased reserves and production, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6% in upstream capital expenditure from 2018 to 2024 [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring OPEC+ production decisions and the outcomes of U.S.-Iran negotiations, as these factors could significantly impact the oil supply outlook. The potential easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports could disrupt oil prices [3] Summary by Sections Oil Supply and Demand Outlook - The report highlights multiple disturbances in the oil supply and demand landscape, including trade agreements and geopolitical negotiations that could affect oil prices and supply stability [3] - The report suggests that the long-term oil supply-demand structure remains favorable, supporting a positive outlook for the "Big Three" oil companies and oil service sectors [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on the following companies: China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC), Sinopec, CNOOC, and their respective oil service subsidiaries. It also suggests monitoring leading companies in the refining and chemical sectors, as well as coal chemical leaders and ethylene producers [4]