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价格上涨尚未引发大量新增供应,库存预计将持续趋紧
Dong Zheng Qi Huo·2025-05-11 13:14

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for corn and corn starch is bullish [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Agricultural product spot prices have risen without triggering a large amount of new supply. The supply - demand gap is expected not to shrink, and spot prices are expected to continue to strengthen. Before more fragmented evidence supporting tight inventory carry - over appears, hedging pressure and concerns about auctions may suppress the upward momentum of futures prices. It is recommended to continue holding the 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spread strategies. If import auctions are launched, the quantity is not expected to exceed expectations, and attention should be paid to the demand and inventory situation reflected by the transaction rate and transaction price [3] - The开机 rate of corn starch continues to increase inertia, and starch inventory accumulates. Although the overall tone of reducing the开机 rate remains unchanged, the speed may be disturbed by various factors. The current futures CS - C spread has complex influencing factors, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Price Review 1.1 Corn - Relevant charts include corn's spot and futures price performance and basis, spot price trend, 7 - 9 and 7 - 11 month - spread trends [15] 1.2 Corn Starch - Relevant charts include corn starch's spot and futures price performance and basis, the spread between starch and corn's main futures, the spot spread between starch and corn in Weifang, and corn starch by - product revenue compensation [19][22] 2. Weekly Observation of Corn Fundamental Information 2.1 Purchase and Sale of Reserves - Relevant charts show the situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation's online competitive sales and purchases of corn [29] 2.2 Inventory - Relevant charts cover the grain inventory, foreign trade inventory, and domestic trade inventory of corn in southern ports, the corn inventory in northern ports, the corn inventory of major deep - processing enterprises, the corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises, the inventory - to - consumption ratio of major deep - processing enterprises, and the corn inventory days of feed enterprises [32][38][43] 2.3 Substitutes - Relevant charts show the price spread between wheat and corn and the theoretical advantage spread of wheat substituting for corn [47] 2.4 Demand - Relevant charts include the profitability of corn - to - ethanol in Heilongjiang, the corn alcohol开机 rate, and the average slaughter weight of pigs [49][50] 3. Weekly Observation of Corn Starch Fundamental Information 3.1 Profitability - Relevant charts show the profitability and profit of corn starch enterprises [54] 3.2 Supply - Relevant charts include the开机 rate and processing volume of corn starch enterprises [57] 3.3 Demand - Relevant charts show the开机 rates of fructose syrup, maltose syrup, corrugated paper, and box - board paper [62][63] 3.4 Inventory - Relevant charts cover the available inventory of corn starch enterprises and the seasonal trend of registered corn starch warehouse receipts [67]