Guoyuan Securities·2025-05-11 13:20Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the smart home industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to outperform the benchmark index by more than 10% [29]. Core Insights - The smart home industry is poised for rapid growth driven by three main factors: continuous consumer demand for upgrades and aging-related renovations, technological innovations, and strong policy support [29]. - The Chinese government has expanded the categories eligible for subsidies under the old-for-new consumption policy, increasing from 8 to 12 categories, which is expected to stimulate consumption in the home appliance and smart home sectors [29]. - The report highlights a significant increase in consumer spending during the May Day holiday, with a 15.2% year-on-year growth in sales across related industries, particularly in home appliances and new energy vehicles [20][21]. Summary by Sections Market Review - In the past two weeks (April 26 - May 9, 2025), the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.12%, and the ChiNext Index by 3.32%. The smart home index (399996.SZ) increased by 2.97%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite by 1.54 percentage points [11][12]. - Year-to-date (January 1 - May 9, 2025), the smart home index has risen by 3.19%, significantly outperforming the Shanghai Composite, which has decreased by 0.29% [11][12]. Industry Policy Tracking - The Guangdong Provincial Government has issued a plan to boost consumption, including the implementation of an old-for-new policy for consumer goods and the promotion of artificial intelligence and robotics consumption [15]. - The Ministry of Commerce has committed to enhancing the effectiveness of the old-for-new policy and reforming the automotive circulation consumption [17]. Industry News Tracking - The Minister of Commerce announced that the sales volume of the old-for-new policy is expected to exceed 1.3 trillion yuan in 2024, with further growth anticipated in 2025 [19]. - During the May Day holiday, sales of home appliances and communication devices surged, with home appliance sales increasing by 167.5% year-on-year [20]. - Midea Group plans to spin off its logistics subsidiary, Ande Intelligent, for a public listing in Hong Kong, aiming to enhance its business structure and market valuation [22][23]. Investment Recommendations - Leading home appliance companies like Haier, Midea, Gree, and Hisense have shown resilience in the face of tariff pressures due to their global production strategies [29]. - The report emphasizes that the smart home industry is entering a rapid development phase, supported by consumer demand for comprehensive smart home solutions and technological advancements in IoT and AI [29].