集运指数（欧线）周度报告10-12反套轻仓持有，逢高建空2510-20250511

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - Hold a light short position in the 10 - 12 spread; build short positions in the 2510 contract on rallies [7][11] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overview - In the past week, the container shipping index fluctuated weakly, dragged down by the weak fundamentals [7] - The 2506 contract may trade based on the spot freight rate trend. The fundamentals of the European route are expected to remain weak in the next 1 - 2 weeks, but the freight rate in late May is approaching the cash - flow cost line of shipping companies, reducing their willingness to cut prices further [11] - The European route is expected to improve as some alliance shipping companies may start to raise prices in June. However, considering the high - capacity saturation in late May and the first week of June, the probability of actual freight rate increases in early June is low [11] - The 2508 contract mainly reflects the expected trading of Sino - US tariff policy changes. The 2510 contract has significant differences. The report believes that October is the traditional off - season for the European route, and the probability of the US restocking driving the supply - demand imbalance in the European route is low. It is advisable to build short positions on rallies [11] Price - Spot Freight and Spot Index Tracking - In late May, the market freight rate center decreased by $100 - 150/FEU compared with early May. Attention should be paid to whether Maersk's week 22 opening price will be maintained or lowered [8][20] - Some alliance shipping companies may raise prices every half - month in June. The actual freight rate trend in early June is expected to be flat compared with late May, and the trend in late June depends on the loading situation in early June [8][20] - The OA alliance's list price center is around $1840/FEU, and the offline price is mostly around $1700/FEU. CMA CGM's e - commerce quote in early May was $2145/FEU, and it was lowered by $150 to $1995/FEU in late May, with an offline quote around $1800/FEU [8][20] - The PA alliance's list price center is around $1600/FEU. ONE's price of $1637/FEU will be maintained until the end of May; HMM's e - commerce quote of $1704/FEU remains unchanged in May; Yang Ming's quote decreased by $100 to $1500/FEU in late May [8][20] - The Gemini alliance's list price center is around $1575/FEU. Maersk's week 21 opening price was $1450/FEU, with no second opening. Attention should be paid to the week 22 opening price. HPL's FAK quote in late May was $1700/FEU, and T1 customers can apply for $1500/EFU [8][20] - MSC's FAK price was lowered by $50 to $1890/FEU on the 15th [21] - Historical Freight (Monthly) - It shows the freight rates and their month - on - month changes of different routes from January to December from 2009 to 2024, including the SCFI index of European routes, Mediterranean routes, South American routes, US West Coast routes, US East Coast routes, and West African routes [13] - Month - to - Month Spread Trend - Displays the month - to - month spread trends of 6 - 10, 8 - 10, 6 - 8, and 10 - 12 [14] Demand - US and European Inventory Data - As of February, the actual inventory, actual sales, and inventory - to - sales ratio data of the US are provided. As of April, the evaluation data of European industrial enterprises on their inventory levels and new orders are presented [30] - US Imports of Goods from China - In March, the total volume of containers imported by the US from China was 887,000 TEU, a decrease of 8% compared with February and an increase of 15% compared with the same period last year [32] - Asian Export Situation - In March, the volume of containers imported by Europe from Asia was 1.603 million TEU, a month - on - month increase of 45% and a year - on - year increase of 11%; the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to March was 9% [38] - In March, the volume of containers imported by North America from Asia was 1.975 million TEU, a month - on - month increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 9%; the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to March was 9% [39] - In March, the volume of containers imported by Central and South America from Asia was 451,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 34% and a year - on - year increase of 22%; the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to March was 14% [40] - In March, the domestic trade container volume in Asia was 910,000 TEU, a month - on - month increase of 30% and a year - on - year increase of 25%; the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to March was 12% [41] Supply - Dynamic Capacity - European Route Shipping Schedule - The shipping schedules from April to June for the China - European base routes are provided, including the information of different alliances, route codes, and deployed ships [45][47] - The weekly average capacity in May (weeks 18 - 22, April 28 - June 1) was 300,000 TEU/week, with 8 blank sailings, remaining unchanged compared with the previous week. In late May, the capacity was relatively full, with only Evergreen's CES having a blank sailing in weeks 21 and 22, and other shipping companies operating at full capacity [49] - The weekly average capacity in June is expected to be 300,000 TEU/week, with 4 blank sailings (2 in the first half and 2 in the second half). There are 4 pending voyages in June (pending voyages are not included in the capacity statistics). The suspension plan for the US route in June may be confirmed next week, and the spill - over effect of US - bound ships on the European route will be clearer [49] - Dynamic Capacity - Transfer of US - Bound Ships to the European Route - Affected by the transfer of US - bound ships to the European route, the weekly average capacity of the European route in May increased from 290,000 TEU/week to 300,000 TEU/week, a rise of 3.5% [50] - A total of 17 ships have been transferred from the US route to the European route, with a total capacity of 219,514 TEU [51] - The Gemini alliance has no new US - bound ships transferred to the European route. Maersk transferred 1 ship from the US route in week 18 [54] - The OA alliance will have 1 new US - bound ship transferred to the European route in June. As of now, there are 10 ships in total, with 6 received by the new AEU7 route, 1 by the AEU3 route, 2 by the CES route, and 1 by the FAL1 route [54] - The PA alliance has no new US - bound ships transferred to the European route, maintaining 5 ships, mainly used to replace ships on the FP2 route [54] - MSC has no new US - bound ships transferred to the European route. Currently, only 1 ship, MSC Cristina, has been transferred from the US West Coast's Chinook route in week 22 [54] - Dynamic Capacity - Weekly and Monthly Effective Capacity of the European Route - The weekly and monthly effective capacity data of the European route from April to June are provided, including the data by alliance [55] - Dynamic Capacity - Idle Capacity and Speed - In the past week, the speed of the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleet decreased slightly from 15.15 to around 15.0 knots. The speed of the 17,000 + TEU container fleet remained around 15.4 knots. The current speed is still significantly higher than that of the same period in 2023. If the over - capacity pressure persists, shipping companies may further reduce the speed [58] - The number of idle ships in the 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container fleet remained unchanged at 2 compared with the previous week. The number of idle ships in the 17,000 + TEU container fleet increased by 1 to 2 [59] - Turnover Efficiency - Regional Congestion - Recently, there have been serious ship - schedule delays at the ports of Shanghai and Ningbo. Many European ports are facing congestion and operational disruptions, leading to an increase in the density of port yards and the container detention time, exceeding the normal operational capacity of the ports. Meanwhile, the terminals of ports such as Valencia, Barcelona, Algeciras, and Piraeus in the Mediterranean are also facing high occupancy rates, and the waiting time for ships has increased [64] - Turnover Efficiency - Congestion at Major European Ports - Maersk announced on April 17 that there was serious congestion and operational disruptions at multiple Nordic ports, especially Antwerp and Bremen. This situation was caused by multiple factors, including strikes, shipping network shift plans, low water levels in European inland waterways, and insufficient labor supply before the Easter holiday [66] - Turnover Efficiency - Congestion at Major North American Ports - There is structural congestion at US basic ports. There is basically no congestion at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach on the US West Coast, while the in - port capacity of the port of Savannah on the US East Coast has been at a historical high in the past two weeks [67] - Turnover Efficiency - Congestion at Major Asian Ports - In the past three weeks, there have been many cases of late departures of outbound containers in East China, and the in - port capacity of Port Klang has remained high [75] - Static Capacity - New Ships of 12,000 TEU+ Launched in the Past Three Months - In April, the top ten liner companies received a total of 6 new 12,000 - 16,999 TEU container ships, with MSC, ONE, and Maersk receiving 4, 1, and 1 respectively. MSC deployed 3 of them on the European route. From January to April, the top ten liner companies received a total of 25 ships, with 10 (156,000 TEU) deployed on the European route [77][79] - In April, CMA CGM received 1 new 17,000 + TEU container ship, the "CMA CGM Seine", which was deployed on the European route's FAL3 service. From January to April, the top ten liner companies received a total of 3 ships (71,000 TEU), all deployed on the European route [77][79] - Static Capacity - New Ships of 12,000 TEU+ to be Delivered - The delivery details of new 12,000 + TEU container ships of the top ten liner companies in the next six months are provided, including the size, operator, and shipyard of the ships [80]