股市波动极限收敛，警惕贸易缓和落地后资金兑现：等待回调布局机会

Investment Focus - The strategy recommendation is to wait for a pullback in tech stocks before initiating positions, with dividend stocks expected to provide support during this correction [1][8] - The Hong Kong market saw a pullback in tech stocks while dividend stocks rose, and the A-share market was led by the military sector [1][8] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 1.6% this week, but the gains continued to narrow compared to previous weeks, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.2% [1][8] Global Trade Landscape - Global markets are experiencing stagflation with contracting volatility and increasing downside risks due to heightened uncertainty in the trade landscape [2][9] - The US trade negotiations are progressing slowly, with limited agreements reached, indicating challenges to its dominance in the global trade system [2][9] - China is actively signing trade agreements and deepening cooperation with neighboring countries, exacerbating the uncertainty in the global trade landscape [2][9] Economic Impact - The risk of a US recession remains high, with significant declines in consumer confidence, which may further aggravate internal contradictions in the US [2][10] - China's strong export data for April may be misleading, as it could be due to "selling more at lower prices" and front-loading re-exports [2][10] Trade War Risks - The trade war has led to rapid appreciation pressures on Asian currencies and has triggered geopolitical risks, such as the escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict [3][11] - The trade war may mark a significant turning point in the gradual weakening of the US dollar's hegemony [3][11] US-China Trade Tensions - Expectations for a short-term easing of US-China trade tensions are rising, but caution is needed against profit-taking after positive news is realized [4][12] - The market has largely priced in the expectation of easing US-China trade tensions, making it difficult to quickly reach a consensus [4][12] - The timeline for substantive progress in the agreement between China and the US is expected to be in the second half of the year [4][12] Market Outlook - After a continuous market rebound, the supporting forces for A-shares in May have gradually weakened, suggesting investors should wait for a second dip pullback [5][14] - The long-term logic for investment includes the gradual easing of trade disputes, positive economic policies in China, and the strength of AI as a new economic engine [5][14] - Sector allocation recommendations include internet and AI application sectors, as well as foreign trade and cross-border payment sectors benefiting from China's trade with other countries [5][14]