资源端暂无有效抵抗，盘面增仓屡创新低

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for lithium carbonate is "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The core trading logic of the continuous increase in positions and decline in the futures market, hitting new lows, is to continuously test the cost support of the resource end against the backdrop of no unexpected performance on the demand side and even the need to revise down the terminal growth rate expectations. The accelerated decline in ore prices and the sequential decline in the current operating costs of multiple mines have made this logic smoother. The main logic of long - term oversupply of the variety and the downward shift of cost support remains unchanged, but short - term rhythms need to be noted in the trading dimension. From a fundamental perspective, attention should be paid to whether the reduction in salt production continues to expand, and potential disturbances at the resource end should be continuously vigilant in a low - price environment. After a rapid increase in positions and decline in the futures market, short - covering caused by the expectation gap may drive a rapid rebound in the futures market. Strategically, it is not recommended to continue to short at the current level, nor is it recommended to bottom - fish on the left side based solely on static valuations. Instead, patiently wait for opportunities to short on rebounds [2][20] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Resource End Has No Effective Resistance, and the Increase in Positions in the Futures Market Hits New Lows - Last week (05/06 - 05/09), lithium salt prices accelerated their decline. The closing price of LC2505 decreased by 4% sequentially to 63,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price of LC2507 decreased by 4.5% sequentially to 63,000 yuan/ton. The average spot prices of SMM battery - grade (99.5%) and industrial - grade (99.2%) lithium carbonate decreased by 4.0% and 3.9% sequentially to 65,300 yuan/ton and 63,600 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the near - month contract of lithium carbonate on Liyang Zhonglian Jin decreased by 3.5% sequentially to 64,000 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of lithium hydroxide also showed a weak trend. The average prices of SMM coarse - grained and micron - sized battery - grade lithium hydroxide decreased by 1.9% and 1.8% sequentially to 66,300 yuan/ton and 71,500 yuan/ton respectively. The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate slightly narrowed to 1,700 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide changed from a discount to a premium of 1,000 yuan/ton compared to battery - grade lithium carbonate [1][10] - According to Chilean customs, in April, Chile exported a total of 24,400 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 6% increase sequentially and a 15% decrease year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 15,500 tons, a 6.3% decrease sequentially and a 32% decrease year - on - year. From January to April, Chile exported a total of 91,600 tons of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, a 3% increase year - on - year. Among them, the export to China was 63,300 tons, unchanged year - on - year. In terms of lithium sulfate, in April, Chile shipped 9,100 tons (4,500 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate to China, a 56% increase sequentially and a 14% increase year - on - year. From January to April, a total of 27,300 tons (13,600 tons LCE) of lithium sulfate were shipped to China, a 138% increase year - on - year [2][12] 3.2 Weekly Industry News Review - In April 2025, BYD's total installed capacity of power batteries and energy - storage batteries was approximately 26.478GWh, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 110.83%. In April, BYD's new - energy vehicle production was 385,064 units, and sales were 380,089 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.34%. From January to April 2025, the cumulative production was 1,442,143 units, and the cumulative sales were 1,380,893 units. In April, the overseas sales of new - energy vehicles totaled 79,086 units, and the cumulative overseas sales from January to April were 285,134 units. The cumulative installed capacity from January to April was approximately 79.031GWh [22] - Chile's lithium export volume in April was 24,404 tons, of which the export volume of lithium carbonate was 21,770 tons. The export volume of lithium carbonate to China in that month was 15,546 tons [22] - Liontown Resources received 15 million Australian dollars in financial support from the Western Australian state government. The state took action to support its key minerals industry in the context of持续疲软 prices. Liontown signed a 15 million Australian - dollar interest - free loan agreement with the state and was confirmed to be eligible for temporary exemption from port fees and certain mining property fee rebates. These support measures are aimed at alleviating the financial pressure during the capacity expansion of the Kathleen Valley lithium project and will remain effective until the spodumene price recovers to over $1,100 per ton for two consecutive quarters or until June 30, 2026, whichever comes first [23] - The Chinese Embassy in Chile stated that BYD and Tsingshan have never said they stopped investing in Chile and are willing to continue dialogue with the Chilean authorities [23] 3.3 Key High - Frequency Data Monitoring of the Industrial Chain 3.3.1 Resource End: The Spot Quotation of Lithium Concentrate Continues to Decline - The spot quotation of lithium concentrate continues to decline [24] 3.3.2 Lithium Salt: The Main Contract Hits a New Low Again - The main contract of lithium carbonate hits a new low again [26] 3.3.3 Downstream Intermediates: Quotes Decline - The quotes of downstream intermediates decline [36] 3.3.4 Terminal: In March, China's New - Energy Vehicle Production and Sales Increased Significantly Year - on - Year - In March, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year [41]