Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-11 13:45Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Viewpoints - The construction sector has outperformed the market recently, with a 2.23% increase compared to the 2.09% rise in the CSI 300 index, indicating a positive trend in the industry [1] - Significant price increases in cellulose-related products have been observed, highlighting the potential for domestic substitution to drive performance and valuation catalysts, with a strong recommendation for Sanwei Chemical [1][24] - The issuance of special bonds remains high, suggesting a focus on the conversion rhythm of physical construction work in the future [4] - The year 2025 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for coal chemical projects, likely receiving additional policy support [1] Summary by Sections 1. Progress of Domestic Substitution for Cellulose Products - Acetate cellulose (CA) is primarily used in tobacco filters, with China consuming approximately 300,000 tons annually, and Sichuan Pushi holding a leading position in production [2] - The prices of CAB (cellulose acetate butyrate) and CAP (cellulose acetate propionate) have significantly increased, with domestic CAB prices rising to 90,000-115,000 RMB/ton from 58,000 RMB/ton earlier in the year [2][24] - Sanwei Chemical is enhancing its production capacity for cellulose and its derivatives, with a projected annual capacity of 15,000 tons expected to be operational by December 2025 [3][24] 2. Special Bond Issuance and Infrastructure Work - In April 2025, new local special bonds totaled 230.144 billion RMB, with a cumulative issuance of 1.1904 trillion RMB from January to April, marking a year-on-year increase of 467.9 billion RMB [4][29] - The cement shipment rate was reported at 48.07%, indicating a slight decrease, while the asphalt plant operating rate was 28.8%, showing a slight increase [4][29] 3. Market Review - The construction index rose by 2.23% during the week of May 5-9, with notable gains in the building decoration and design sectors, which increased by 5.91% and 4.43% respectively [5][36] - Top-performing stocks included Shanshui Bide (+28.1%) and ST Saiwei (+21.7%) [5][36] 4. Investment Recommendations - Focus on traditional construction blue-chip stocks, particularly in infrastructure sectors such as water conservancy, railways, and aviation, with recommendations for companies like Sichuan Road and Bridge, Zhejiang Communications, and Anhui Construction [41] - Emphasis on cyclical opportunities in the construction sector, with a positive outlook for companies involved in coal chemical projects, particularly Sanwei Chemical and China Chemical [42]