有色及贵金属周报合集-20250511

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold shows no obvious driving force and its price fluctuates; silver fluctuates within a range. The short - term upward driving force of gold is not obvious, but it is also supported downward, and the price is in a fluctuating pattern with a possible narrowing of volatility [7]. - Copper's fundamental reality is strong, bringing opportunities for term positive spreads trading. However, the Trump tariff policy brings uncertainties [86][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver Market Performance - This week, precious metals continued to rise. London gold rose 2.3%, and London silver rose 0.46%. The gold - silver ratio rose from 100 to 102.3, the 10 - year TIPS rose to 2.08%, the 10 - year nominal interest rate rose to 4.37% (2 - year 3.88%), and the US dollar index was 100.04 [7]. Price Spreads - Overseas: The spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold main contract fell to - 2.64 dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold main contract was - 2.8 dollars/ounce. The spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver main contract widened to - 0.163 dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver main contract was - 0.43 dollars/ounce [13][16]. - Domestic: This week, the gold futures - spot spread was - 3.12 yuan/gram, and the silver futures - spot spread was - 18 yuan/kilogram, both at the lower end of the historical range. The gold monthly spread was 6.24 yuan/gram, and the silver monthly spread was 64 yuan/kilogram, also at the lower end of the historical range [20][23][27][31]. Inventory and Position - COMEX: Gold inventory decreased by 2.12 million ounces to 39.15 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 55.3%. Silver inventory increased by 4.06 million ounces to 503.58 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 33.3% [41][43]. - Futures: Gold futures inventory increased by 1590 tons, and silver futures inventory increased by 3.14 tons to 934 tons [45]. - ETF: This week, the gold SPDR ETF inventory decreased by 7.47 tons, and the silver SLV ETF inventory decreased by 51.04 tons [52][54]. Core Drivers - The correlation between gold and real interest rates has recovered, and the 10 - year TIPS continued to decline [65]. Copper Market Performance - The price range of copper is 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The term spread of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the domestic social inventory of copper continued to decline [86][88][90]. Trading End - Volatility: The copper volatility in four markets declined. The COMEX price volatility fell to around 20%, and the LME copper price volatility fell to around 13% [97]. - Term Spread: The term B - structure of Shanghai copper strengthened, and the LME copper spot premium expanded. The spread between Shanghai copper 05 - 06 widened from 230 yuan/ton to 510 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread rose from 20.23 dollars/ton to a premium of 49.19 dollars/ton [100][102]. - Position: The copper positions in four markets increased, with a significant increase in Shanghai copper positions, which increased by 33,000 lots to 550,000 lots [103]. - Inventory: The global total inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory of copper continued to decline [93]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Copper concentrate imports increased, but the processing fee declined, and smelting losses expanded. The import volume of recycled copper decreased, and the domestic output declined significantly. The supply of blister copper was tight, and the processing fee fell to a historically low level [95]. - Demand: The operating rates of copper product enterprises were differentiated and generally weakened. The consumption was apparently good, with power grid investment and air - conditioning production being important supports [95].