XIAOMI(01810) 天风证券·2025-05-11 14:16Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Xiaomi Group with a target price of 76.88 HKD, indicating an expected return of over 20% within the next six months [6][5]. Core Insights - Xiaomi's smartphone shipments in China have returned to the top position, with a total of 13.3 million units shipped in Q1 2025, representing a 40% year-on-year growth and capturing a 19% market share [1]. - The AIoT segment is expected to see a revenue increase of 52% year-on-year to 30.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025, with a gross margin projected to rise to 24.1% [2]. - The YU7 model is anticipated to launch between June and July 2025, with multiple range options, potentially replicating the sales success of the SU7 model [2]. - Xiaomi's automotive production capacity is set to expand, with the Beijing factory expected to start operations mid-year, contributing to a total capacity of 300,000 vehicles [3]. - The report projects Xiaomi's total revenue for 2025 and 2026 to be 471.8 billion CNY and 679.7 billion CNY respectively, with net profit estimates adjusted to 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY [4]. Summary by Sections Smartphone Business - Xiaomi's smartphone business is expected to grow by 8% year-on-year in Q1 2025, reaching 50.42 billion CNY with a gross margin of 12.5% [1]. AIoT Segment - The AIoT segment is projected to grow significantly, with a revenue forecast of 30.93 billion CNY in Q1 2025 and a gross margin increase to 24.1% [2]. Automotive Business - The SU7 model's delivery reached 76,000 units in Q1 2025, generating an estimated revenue of 18.8 billion CNY with a gross margin of 22.5% [3]. - The forecast for total automotive shipments in 2025 has been raised to 400,000 units [3]. Financial Projections - The report revises total revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026 to 471.8 billion CNY and 679.7 billion CNY, respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 42.9 billion CNY and 85.5 billion CNY [4][5].