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房地产行业周报:新房二手房成交面积同环比下降,央行再度下调LPR25BP
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-05-11 14:23

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - New housing and second-hand housing transaction areas have decreased both year-on-year and month-on-month. The central bank has lowered the LPR by 25 basis points [4][58] - The first four months of 2025 show initial stabilization in sales, with the Politburo meeting affirming the effectiveness of real estate adjustment policies, indicating that more positive fiscal and monetary policies are expected to support steady industry development [4][58] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Changes - The central bank has announced a reduction in personal housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, with the five-year and above first home rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6%, potentially saving residents over 20 billion yuan in interest annually [13][15] - Multiple cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, have implemented new policies to lower housing loan rates [5][13] 2. Sales Performance - In the 19th week of 2025, the transaction area for new homes in 68 major cities was 2.1 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 15% and a month-on-month decrease of 8%. Cumulatively, the transaction area from the beginning of the year to date is 43.97 million square meters, down 3% year-on-year [20][31] - The transaction area for second-hand homes in 20 cities was 1.6 million square meters, with a year-on-year growth rate of -28% [35] 3. Investment Performance - In the 19th week of 2025, 100 major cities launched land planning with a total area of 27.98 million square meters, with 11.4 million square meters successfully transacted, a year-on-year increase of 47% [42] - The land transaction premium rate was 12.4%, indicating a competitive land market [42] 4. Financing Trends - The issuance of domestic credit bonds increased by 183% month-on-month to 5.81 billion yuan, with an average weighted interest rate of 2.25%, down 32 basis points [47][58] 5. Market Performance - The real estate index rose by 0.41% in the week of May 6-9, 2025, underperforming compared to the CSI 300 index, which increased by 2% [53][58] - The report highlights the top-performing real estate stocks, including Asia-Pacific Industry and South Country Real Estate, with significant gains [54][58]