Changjiang Securities·2025-05-11 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the automotive industry [12] Core Insights - The automotive industry is experiencing a trend of consumption downgrade, with significant price reductions observed. During the "May Day" holiday, discounts at the terminal level increased, leading to a notable rise in sales of new energy vehicles priced below 80,000 yuan, which saw a year-on-year growth of 47.9% in Q1 2025. The penetration rate of pure electric models is also increasing rapidly [2][8][21] - The ongoing price war is expected to stimulate short-term sales growth, although the industry's beta may face pressure. Starting in June, the anticipated launch of numerous new models may weaken the impact of the price war, allowing the industry's beta to potentially recover [2][8][37] - The promotional effectiveness of the "one-price" strategy for joint ventures may diminish, while domestic brands are increasing discounts, which could further compress the market share of joint ventures. Companies with strong model cycles, such as Alpha vehicles, are expected to stabilize or increase their market share during this price war, and leading firms are likely to maintain good profitability as the price war subsides [2][8][37] Weekly Market Overview - From April 28 to May 4, total automotive sales reached 423,700 units, a decrease of 6.4% from the previous week. New energy vehicle sales were 204,100 units, down 14.2% week-on-week, with a penetration rate of 48%, a decline of 4.4 percentage points [6][41] - The A-share automotive sector increased by 1.89% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 2.00%. Among 32 primary industries, the automotive sector ranked 20th [7][43] Recommendations - For smart driving, the report recommends focusing on companies with strong smart driving capabilities, such as BYD, XPeng Motors, Geely, and others. The smart driving industry chain is also highlighted, particularly segments with high barriers to entry [9] - In the robotics sector, domestic and international industries are rapidly developing, with several catalysts expected in Q2. The report recommends companies with solid fundamentals and clear progress in their robotics business, such as Top Group and others [9][10] - For automotive parts, while some components may face pressure due to Tesla's declining sales, performance is expected to rebound with the launch of new models in Q2. Globalized parts suppliers are anticipated to recover from recent tariff impacts [10]