格林大华期货早盘提示-20250512

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report has a long - term bullish view on the four major stock indices and suggests investors to ignore short - term fluctuations [2] Core View - The A - share market has returned to the previous large consolidation platform, and theme trading is expected to remain active, which is in line with the Politburo's decision to continuously stabilize and activate the capital market. Long - term bullishness is maintained while short - term fluctuations are downplayed [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main indices of the two markets showed divergent trends, with growth - style indices falling and high - dividend sectors strengthening. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.19 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index closed at 6082 points, down 76 points or - 1.23%; the CSI 500 index closed at 5721 points, down 52 points or - 0.90%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2684 points, up 4 points or 0.17%; the SSE 300 index closed at 3846 points, down 6 points or - 0.17%. The top - rising industry and theme ETFs were bank ETFs, SSE 300 dividend ETFs, etc., while the top - falling ones were military - leading ETFs, etc. Among the sector indices, the top - rising ones were daily chemicals, small and medium - sized banks, etc., and the top - falling ones were storage chips, Sora concept, etc. The futures of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 50, and SSE 300 indices saw net outflows of 4, 7, 13, and 40 billion yuan respectively [1] Important Information - The central bank issued a notice to set up re - loans for service consumption and elderly care, with a quota of 500 billion yuan and an annual interest rate of 1.5%, to encourage financial institutions to support key service consumption areas and the elderly - care industry [1][2] - In April, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year (urban remained flat, rural decreased by 0.3%) and increased by 0.1% month - on - month (urban increased by 0.2%, rural remained flat) [1] - In the industry - theme ETFs, 12 funds had net inflows of over 100 million yuan this week. The科创 chip ETF, semiconductor ETF, and artificial intelligence ETF added 609 million, 554 million, and 506 million units respectively, with net inflows of 961 million, 582 million, and 473 million yuan [1] - In the first four months of this year, China's high - tech product exports reached 1.52 trillion yuan, up 7.4%, accounting for 18.1% of the total export value. Ship and marine engineering equipment exports increased by 16.4%, industrial robot exports by 58.3%, and wind turbine generator exports by 45.5% [1] - In April, the production of new - energy passenger vehicles reached 1.151 million, up 40.3% year - on - year, and the retail sales in the new - energy passenger vehicle market were 905,000, up 33.9% year - on - year [1] - On May 8th, the Hongmeng computer with the Hongmeng operating system was officially launched in Shenzhen, marking an important breakthrough for domestic operating systems in the PC field [1] - As of May 8th, 36 enterprises announced the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds with a total issuance scale of 21 billion yuan, and 14 enterprises were applying for registration with a total registration scale of 18 billion yuan [2] - In the past four weeks, US - focused stock funds redeemed about $24.8 billion, the most in two years. In the money market, speculators pushed long - yen positions to a record high [2] - Nomura believes that Japanese investors' risk of reducing US Treasury holdings is significantly greater than that of stocks, with insurance companies being the key. The US - dollar proportion in the foreign securities investments of nine major Japanese life - insurance companies has reached a record high of 72% [2] - US listed companies' stock buy - backs will exceed $1 trillion for the first time this year. Apple bought back $25 billion and authorized an additional $100 billion in buy - backs [2] - Goldman Sachs warned that the US stock market faces a nearly 20% decline risk, and an economic recession poses a huge risk to the stock market [2] Market Logic - After the holiday, the main indices of the two markets generally moved up and entered the previous platform consolidation area. The central bank's new policy on re - loans is expected to boost relevant industries [2] Future Outlook - The high - dividend sectors strengthened on Friday, and the main indices showed divergent trends with growth - style indices adjusting. The central bank's monetary policy report shows that the price recovery rate is significantly lower than the financial aggregate growth rate. The government's price management should shift from encouraging "price - for - volume" to guiding "quality - for - profit". In April, passenger - car production and wholesale reached monthly records, and domestic retail sales had a 6% positive growth with a 14.5% growth rate and a net increase of 220,000 vehicles. China and the US held tariff negotiations in Switzerland [2] Trading Strategies - For stock index futures directional trading, the A - share market is expected to see continued active theme trading, and a long - term bullish view is taken on the four major stock indices while ignoring short - term fluctuations [2] - For stock index option trading, as the A - share market has returned to the previous large consolidation platform and short - term volatility has decreased, the recommendation of out - of - the - money long - term call options on the four major stock indices is suspended [2]