金信期货日刊-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The soda ash market is in a slump with prices dropping significantly and a weak outlook due to oversupply, cost - side factors, and the macro - economic environment. The technical indicators also show a bearish trend [3]. - The short - term strong characteristics of stock index futures remain obvious, continuing the volatile pattern. A - share indices have a slight adjustment, and the result of Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks is expected this weekend [6][7]. - The medium - to long - term upward logic of gold remains unchanged. It is currently in a volatile pattern after a short - term technical correction due to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment and large previous gains [10][11]. - Iron ore faces a large supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the risk of high valuation is heightened as domestic demand turns to the seasonal off - season. The high - short strategy remains unchanged [14]. - The demand for glass needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. Technically, it hits a new low and the bearish view remains [17]. - The supply shortage of imported soybeans has been quickly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for soybean No.1 futures, but there are signs of a phased peak [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soda Ash Market - Supply: Soda ash has seen rapid capacity expansion in recent years. New capacities such as Jiangsu Debang and Lianyungang Alkali Industry have entered the market, with continuous release of new capacity in 2025, resulting in abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Demand is weak. Float glass demand has decreased due to the sluggish real - estate market, and the growth of photovoltaic glass has slowed down. The demand increment from other fields like lithium carbonate is small [3]. - Cost: The prices of upstream coal and raw salt have dropped, reducing the costs of the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process, and providing support for price decline [3]. - Macro - environment: Uncertainty in economic recovery has led to a strong wait - and - see atmosphere, reduced investor risk preference, and capital outflows from the futures market, pushing down soda ash futures prices [3]. - Technical analysis: MACD green bars are expanding, KDJ shows a death cross, the price has broken through the key psychological level, and short - term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, indicating a bearish market [3]. Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term strong characteristics are obvious, and it continues the volatile pattern. A - share indices have a slight adjustment, and the result of Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks is awaited [6][7]. Gold - Long - term trend: The medium - to long - term upward logic remains unchanged. - Short - term situation: After a large increase, it is undergoing a technical correction due to the retreat of risk - aversion sentiment and a large number of profit - taking positions. It is currently in a volatile pattern [10][11]. Iron Ore - Supply - demand: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to a large supply surplus pressure, and domestic demand is turning to the seasonal off - season, increasing the risk of high valuation [14]. - Technical analysis: It had a narrow - range consolidation today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [14]. Glass - Demand: Demand needs the effect of real - estate stimulus or major policies to increase. The daily melting volume is low, the spot production and sales have improved slightly, but the factory inventory is still high, and the restocking motivation of downstream deep - processing orders is weak [17][18]. - Technical analysis: It hit a new low today, and the bearish view remains [17]. Soybean No.1 - Supply - demand: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has been quickly alleviated, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for soybean No.1 futures [21]. - Technical analysis: Profit - taking funds are reducing positions, and the position has been continuously decreasing, showing signs of a phased peak [21].