纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1纯碱市场 - The industry meeting has announced a production - cut and price - support plan. Initial maintenance in early May has been basically implemented, and the scope of maintenance is expected to expand in the middle and late May, leading to a continuous reduction in production. However, the futures market has initially shown a weak feedback, and the positive feedback is not strong. The pressure on soda ash plants has not been significantly relieved. The trend remains bearish, and further changes in maintenance need to be observed [8][9]. - The strategy suggests paying attention to the new order transaction prices, the implementation of maintenance and price - support measures. After taking profits from closing short positions, one can participate again by shorting at high prices when the price goes up [9]. 2.2 Glass market - From a valuation perspective, it has entered an ideal layout range, but it is necessary to wait for the improvement of market sentiment. Follow - up should track the changes in production lines, observe the digestion progress of low - price futures and spot sources, and the changes in the spot volume and price sentiment in the main production areas [171]. - The strategy recommends a long - position approach for far - month contracts at low prices [171]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Market Review - Supply: The total production is 74.07 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.79 million tons. After the holiday, maintenance has gradually started, and production is expected to decline from the high level. The new production capacity of Lianyungang Soda Plant is expected to produce trial products this month [8]. - Demand: The apparent demand for soda ash is 71.16 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5.58 million tons. The terminal has replenished inventory at low prices, and manufacturers still have some forward - delivery orders [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of soda ash plants is 170.13 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 million tons. The social inventory is 37.00 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.00 million tons. Under the expectation of production cuts, the plant inventory is expected to decrease in the short term, while the middle - stream inventory may stop falling and rise [8]. - Valuation: The cost and profit of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable. The basis of the market price in Shahe is 28 yuan [8]. 3.2 Monthly Supply and Demand - Production: The monthly production data of soda ash from 2020 to 2025 shows certain seasonal fluctuations [15]. - Import and Export: The current import volume is 0.32 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 million tons; the export volume is 19.43 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 million tons. The import dependence is 0.11 [16]. 3.3 Basis and Spread - Futures and Spot Price Comparison: Charts show the price trends of glass futures, Shahe heavy - soda ash market price, soda ash futures, and Shahe 5mm glass plate price from 2020 to 2025 [24][25][26][27]. - Soda Ash Contract Basis: Charts present the basis trends of Shahe heavy - soda ash 01, 09, and 05 contracts from 2022 to 2026 [29][30][31]. - Soda Ash Contract Inter - period Spread: Charts show the spread trends of soda ash 09 - 01, 01 - 05, and 05 - 09 contracts from 2021 to 2026 [33][34][35]. - Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread: Charts display the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts and the spot spread from 2021 to 2025 [37][39][40]. 3.4 Soda Ash Market Price - Shahe Region: The current market price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe is 1330 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 19 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 920 yuan/ton [45]. - Regional Price of Heavy and Light Soda Ash: The prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions have different degrees of changes. For example, the price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe has decreased, while the prices in some other regions remain stable [49]. 3.5 Soda Ash Supply - Start - up and Shutdown: Some soda ash plants are currently under maintenance or operating at reduced loads, and many plants have planned maintenance in May and June [87]. - Start - up Rate: The current domestic start - up rate of soda ash is 87.74%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points [88]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of ammonia - soda process and combined - soda process are relatively stable, and the prices of related raw materials such as synthetic ammonia also show certain trends [98][111]. 3.6 Soda Ash Demand - Demand for Heavy - Soda Ash: The demand for heavy - soda ash is mainly affected by the production of float glass and photovoltaic glass. The current daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has decreased slightly [134][135][137]. - Apparent Consumption and Production - Sales Ratio: The weekly apparent consumption and production - sales ratio of soda ash show certain fluctuations [140]. - Photovoltaic Glass Price: The market average prices of 3.2mm and 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass have certain trends from 2021 to 2025 [144][145]. 3.7 Soda Ash Inventory - Overall Inventory: The current inventory of soda ash enterprises is 170.13 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 2.91 million tons [149]. - Regional Inventory: The inventory of soda ash in different regions shows different trends [156][157][158]. 3.8 Glass Market Review - Supply: The daily melting volume of float glass is 155,825 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1400 tons. The weekly production is 109.08 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.98 million tons [169]. - Demand: The apparent consumption is 95.73 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 16.75 million tons. Market demand sentiment is weak, and the apparent demand has declined [169]. - Inventory: The factory inventory is 337.80 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 12.86 million tons. Weak demand has led to a short - term increase in factory inventory [169]. - Valuation: The costs and profits of different production lines of glass are relatively stable. The spread between East China and Central China is 200 yuan, and the basis of the 5mm glass plate in Shahe is 162 yuan [169]. 3.9 Monthly Supply and Demand of Glass - Production: The monthly production data of flat glass from 2020 to 2025 shows certain seasonal fluctuations [176]. - Import and Export: The import and export volumes of float glass also show certain trends [178][181]. 3.10 Basis and Spread of Glass - Futures and Spot Price Comparison: Charts show the price trends of Shahe 5mm glass plate, glass futures, Shahe heavy - soda ash market price, and soda ash futures from 2020 to 2025 [185][187][188][189]. - Glass Contract Basis: Charts present the basis trends of the 01, 09, and 05 contracts of Shahe 5mm glass plate from 2021 to 2026 [191][192][194]. - Glass Contract Inter - period Spread: Charts show the spread trends of glass 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 contracts from 2009 to 2026 [196][197][198]. - Glass - Soda Ash Contract/Spot Spread: Charts display the spread trends of glass - soda ash 01, 09, 05 contracts and the spot spread from 2021 to 2025 [201][202][203]. 3.11 Glass Market Price - Regional Price of 5mm Float Glass: The prices of 5mm float glass in different regions have different degrees of changes. For example, the prices in Shahe have decreased, while the prices in some other regions remain stable [207]. - Price of 5mm Glass Plate: The prices of 5mm glass plates in different regions and different manufacturers also show certain trends [219][221][223].