恒立液压：工程机械需求回暖，线性驱动器放量可期-20250512

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 93.01, compared to the last closing price of 76.10 [1][5]. Core Views - The demand for construction machinery is recovering, and the linear actuator project is expected to ramp up production, creating new growth opportunities for the company [1][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 93.90 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.51%, and a net profit of 25.09 billion, up 0.40% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company is actively pursuing international expansion and diversifying its product offerings to enhance competitiveness [2][4]. Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 93.90 billion, with product breakdowns showing hydraulic cylinders at 47.61 billion (up 1.44%), hydraulic pumps and valves at 35.83 billion (up 9.63%), hydraulic systems at 2.96 billion (up 1.64%), and parts and castings at 6.84 billion (up 1.76%) [3]. - The company's gross margins for 2024 and Q1 2025 were 42.83% and 39.40%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year change of +0.93 percentage points and -0.7 percentage points [3]. Market Outlook - The domestic excavator sales in 2024 are projected to reach 100,543 units, marking an 11.7% year-on-year increase, indicating a positive trend in domestic demand supported by policy initiatives [4]. - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing recovery in the construction machinery sector and the anticipated growth in exports as it expands its international market presence [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2027 are 102.96 billion, 117.99 billion, and 139.34 billion, respectively, with net profits projected at 27.71 billion, 31.93 billion, and 37.76 billion [5][6]. - The expected revenue growth rates are 9.6% for 2025, 14.6% for 2026, and 18.1% for 2027, while net profit growth rates are projected at 10.5%, 15.2%, and 18.3% for the same years [6].