工业硅、多晶硅日评：工业硅上方压力较强，多晶硅波动加剧-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The industrial silicon price is expected to remain weak in the short - term, ranging from 8,000 to 10,000 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price has rebounded at a low level due to delivery factors and production cut news. In the short - term, the price fluctuation will intensify, and if the contradiction between "high positions and low warehouse receipts" is not alleviated, a long position can be considered for the 06 contract [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,050 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 10,050 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract decreased by 1.32% to 8,205 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - In April, due to production cuts by some silicon enterprises in Xinjiang, the overall industrial silicon output decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, affected by the resumption of production in the southwest production area during the flat - water period and the ramping up of some new production capacities, the output is expected to increase steadily, but the increase is limited [1]. Demand - Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to cut production to support prices, but the demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. The domestic monomer enterprises' operating rates increase and decrease, and it is expected to drop below 55% in May. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at a low level is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon Price - N - type dense material remained flat at 38 yuan/kg; polysilicon re - feedstock price remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon dense material remained flat at 34.5 yuan/kg; polysilicon cauliflower material remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg; the closing price of the futures main contract increased by 2.38% to 37,830 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - Silicon material enterprises maintain a production - cut state, and some silicon material factories may have new production capacity put into operation. The output is expected to be within 100,000 tons [1]. Demand - The strong installation period is basically over, the photovoltaic market is weak, the inventory of silicon wafers and silicon materials has increased, the prices of silicon wafers, battery cells and components have continued to decline, the market demand has slowed down, and some component delivery prices are close to new lows, with weak market transactions [1]. Other Information - On May 8, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 596,000 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 133,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 463,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week [1]. - On May 6, the Natural Resources Bureau of Wuhai City released the design plan for the first - phase of Inner Mongolia Xingfa Technology Co., Ltd.'s industrial silicon project. The project investment is 1.495 billion yuan, and the construction scale is a 100,000 - ton/year industrial silicon project [1].