Tianfeng Securities·2025-05-12 01:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown steady revenue growth with Q1 2025 revenue at 10.446 billion yuan, up 2.91% year-on-year, and net profit at 1.710 billion yuan, up 7.08% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume in Q1 2025 reached 2.261 million tons, an increase of 3.5% year-on-year, with the main brand's sales volume at 1.375 million tons, up 4.1% [2]. - Cost advantages are continuing, with a gross margin improvement of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, and a decrease in ton cost by 2.6% [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue was 10.446 billion yuan, a 2.91% increase year-on-year; net profit was 1.710 billion yuan, a 7.08% increase year-on-year; and non-recurring net profit was 1.603 billion yuan, up 5.95% year-on-year [1]. - Q1 sales volume was 2.261 million tons, a 3.5% increase year-on-year, with a ton revenue decrease of 0.6% to 4,620 yuan [2]. Cost and Profitability - The net profit margin increased by 0.7 percentage points to 16.6%, with a gross margin increase of 1.2 percentage points and a ton cost decrease of 2.6% [3]. - The company expects continued cost benefits from barley and packaging material, along with scale effects enhancing profit elasticity [4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in Q2 and Q3 due to low base effects, with expected revenue growth rates of 4%, 2%, and 2% for 2025-2027 [4]. - Forecasted net profit growth rates are 12%, 8%, and 6% for the same period, with corresponding P/E ratios of 21X, 19X, and 18X [4].