摩根士丹利：全球信贷简报_风暴之眼

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious outlook on credit markets, suggesting that spreads are below average while risks are above average, leading to a challenging risk/reward scenario [4][22][38]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while tariff volatility may be decreasing, economic data weakness is anticipated, with growth expected to slow to 0.6% in 2025 and inflation firming in the third quarter [38]. - It emphasizes that current credit valuations are underpricing recession risks, which are estimated at 10-25% compared to economists' expectations of around 40% [38]. - The report notes a healthy microeconomic environment for credit, with corporate balance sheets in better shape than in previous slowdowns, characterized by high cash levels and manageable maturities [38]. Summary by Sections Global Credit Overview - The report discusses the recovery of global equity markets, which have regained losses since early April, driven by a positive earnings season and solid job data [3][9]. - It mentions that the 'pause' in tariffs has raised hopes for more flexible US trade policies, while economic data has shown generally positive trends [12][13]. US Credit Strategy - The report outlines that default pressures are building in private credit due to weaker growth and fewer rate cuts, although structural guardrails are in place to mitigate vulnerabilities [5][40]. - It suggests that investment-grade credit is positioned well due to the sell-off in rates, with a preference for long-end, low $ bonds, particularly in Financials and Utilities sectors [38]. Private Credit Insights - The report indicates that while direct lending companies have shown resilience, risks are rising due to elevated rates and potential economic spillovers from tariffs [40][42]. - It highlights that the historical default rate for private credit is around 5%, with risks skewed to the upside given current policy uncertainties [42]. Dim Sum Bond Market - The report notes that the Dim Sum corporate bond market is becoming a global funding option, offering cheap funding for issuers, similar to Japan's Samurai bond market in the 2000s [6][41]. - It anticipates increased participation from foreign investors as the supply of Dim Sum bonds grows [43]. Sector Credit Research - The report summarizes trade recommendations across various sectors, indicating that the retail and consumer sectors have underperformed due to tariff uncertainties [49]. - It also discusses the energy sector, noting that high yield energy has underperformed amid oil price concerns, with updated free cash flow analyses reflecting current market conditions [56].