Investment Rating - The investment rating for Midea Group Co Ltd. is Overweight, indicating that the stock's total return is expected to exceed the average total return of the analyst's industry coverage universe over the next 12-18 months [3][15]. Core Views - The report maintains 2025 forecasts largely unchanged due to consistent guidance, with slight reductions in 2026 revenue and net profit estimates by 1% to account for a higher base from trade-in subsidies amid macro uncertainties [2]. - The price target for Midea Group is set at Rmb95.00, with the stock currently priced at Rmb73.62, indicating a potential upside of approximately 29.04% [3][10]. - Midea's diversification into the B2B channel is expected to drive earnings growth alongside its home appliances business, supported by a consumer trade-in program that may enhance domestic sales [13]. Financial Estimates - The fiscal year ending estimates for Midea Group are as follows: - 2025e Sales/Revenue: Rmb452,452 million - 2025e Net Income: Rmb44,233 million - 2025e EPS: Rmb6.3 [20]. - Key earnings inputs for 2025 include: - AC volume growth: 7.0% - AC ASP growth: 2.0% - Air conditioners gross margin: 26.0% [18]. Valuation Metrics - The valuation for home appliances is based on a 2025e P/E of 15x, reflecting high earnings visibility and potential growth in the To-business segment [7]. - The report indicates that Midea is trading at a 30% discount to the consumer average, suggesting that the valuation gap should narrow due to reduced cyclicality and improved earnings visibility [14]. Market Trends - Midea is well-positioned to benefit from industry trends such as market consolidation, increased small appliance purchases, and growing online penetration [13]. - The report highlights potential upside from the To-B channel growth and overseas business expansion, alongside stimulus effects [6].
摩根士丹利：美的集团_风险回报最新情况