沥青：跟随原油区间震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The asphalt market follows the crude oil price and fluctuates within a certain range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of BU2506 was 3,453 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.07%, and the night - session closing price was 3,459 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.17%. The closing price of BU2507 was 3,433 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 2.05%, and the night - session closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.20% [1]. - Trading Volumes and Open Interest: The trading volume of BU2506 was 194,079 lots, an increase of 8,668 lots, and the open interest was 110,071 lots, an increase of 588 lots. The trading volume of BU2507 was 65,850 lots, an increase of 10,638 lots, and the open interest was 131,362 lots, an increase of 4,820 lots [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: The total warehouse receipts of asphalt in the whole market were 86,120 lots, with no change [1]. - Price Spreads: The basis (Shandong - 06) was 117 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 06 - 07 inter - period spread was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. - Spot Market Prices: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,570 yuan/ton, with no change [1]. - Refinery Data: As of May 8, 2025, the refinery operating rate was 32.44%, an increase of 2.63% from May 3. The refinery inventory rate was 29.38%, an increase of 0.21% from May 3 [1]. 3.2 Market Trends - BU - SC Spread: After a passive expansion, it stabilized and fluctuated [1]. - Warehouse Receipts: Remained stable [1]. - Crude Oil Prices: Rebounded in the near - term and then fluctuated [8]. - Low - price Spot: Continuously rebounded [8]. 3.3 Market Information - Production: From May 2 to May 8, 2025, the weekly total domestic asphalt production was 509,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons (4.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 42,000 tons (9.0%). The cumulative production from January to May was 9.273 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16,000 tons (0.2%) [13]. - Factory Inventory: As of May 8, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories was 882,000 tons, a 0.1% increase from May 6. The overall factory inventory increased, with the largest increase in the East China region due to the intermittent resumption and increased production of major refineries [13]. - Social Inventory: As of May 8, 2025, the total inventory of 104 asphalt social warehouses was 1.919 million tons, a 0.1% increase from May 6. The social inventory increased slightly, with a more obvious increase in Shandong due to the arrival of some imported resources [13]. 3.4 Trend Intensity The asphalt trend intensity was 1, indicating a neutral to slightly strong trend, with the range of trend intensity being integers within [- 2,2] [10].