Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the May Day holiday, there is still a willingness for second - round fattening, but the price difference between fat pigs in the north and south is inverted, the sale of group piglets has decreased, and the pen pressure in May has slightly increased. The near - term contradiction is not in the release stage. The macro - sentiment has cooled, the capital disturbance has decreased, and the trading logic has switched to the industrial logic. Attention should be paid to the arbitrage strategy of the far - month inter - month spread valuation deviating from the normal state. It is expected that the liquidity of the 11 - 1 reverse spread will gradually increase at the end of May, and attention should be paid to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level of the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 15,000 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - Spot Prices: Henan spot price is 15,000 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 50; Sichuan spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 100; Guangdong spot price is 15,290 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 150 [3] - Futures Prices: The price of pig 2507 is 13,495 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the price of pig 2509 is 13,925 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 15; the price of pig 2511 is 13,625 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 60 [3] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of pig 2507 is 5,294 lots, a decrease of 213 from the previous day, and the open interest is 30,668 lots, a decrease of 140 from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2509 is 26,531 lots, an increase of 4,441 from the previous day, and the open interest is 71,319 lots, a decrease of 2,087 from the previous day; the trading volume of pig 2511 is 3,613 lots, an increase of 111 from the previous day, and the open interest is 29,156 lots, a decrease of 331 from the previous day [3] - Price Spreads: The basis of pig 2507 is 1,505 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65; the basis of pig 2509 is 1,075 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 65; the basis of pig 2511 is 1,375 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 110; the 7 - 9 spread of pig is - 430 yuan/ton with no year - on - year change; the 9 - 11 spread of pig is 300 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 45 [3] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with a value range of [- 2,2] for integers, and the strength classification includes weak, slightly weak, neutral, slightly strong, and strong. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view [4]
生猪：近端矛盾不显
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-12 02:02