股指期货：风偏支撑，行情偏强

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market rebounded. Positive external market during the May Day holiday, new monetary policies from the central bank, and better-than-expected foreign trade data boosted market sentiment. The most pessimistic tariff situation has been priced in, and with expected policy easing and slow impact of trade frictions on the real economy, the stock market remained strong. Globally, European and American stock indices recovered losses since the tariff imposition, with the German DAX30 index hitting a record high [1]. - In the later stage, the domestic policy - makers' emphasis on economic work and support for the capital market will support investors' risk appetite. Although the negative inflation data provides room for policy easing, as trade negotiations enter a game - stage, the impact of tariffs on the real economy will gradually emerge. After the stock price filled the gap, the upward momentum may weaken, but the index is expected to remain strong [2]. Summary by Sections Market Review and Outlook - Market sentiment was positive last week. The stable external market during the May Day holiday and new monetary policies from the central bank on May 7 continued to boost the market. The better - than - expected foreign trade data on Friday also contributed to the positive sentiment. The most pessimistic tariff situation has been priced in, and the expected policy easing and slow impact on the real economy kept the stock market strong. Globally, European and American stock indices recovered losses, and the German DAX30 index reached a new high. Looking ahead, the positive policy attitude supports investors' risk appetite, but the impact of tariffs on the real economy will gradually appear, and the upward momentum may weaken [1][2]. - Key factors to watch include the release of domestic economic data and the progress of trade negotiations [3]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: Buy on short - term pullbacks. For intraday trading, refer to 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend strategy: Hold long positions. The expected core operating ranges for IF2505, IH2505, IC2505, and IM2505 are 3625 - 3812 points, 2578 - 2697 points, 5317 - 5673 points, and 5537 - 5910 points respectively [4]. - Cross - variety strategy: Hold the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [5]. Spot Market Review - In the US stock market last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.16%, the S&P 500 fell 0.47%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.27%. In the European stock market, the UK's FTSE 100 fell 0.48%, Germany's DAX index rose 1.79%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.34%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 1.83% and the Hang Seng Index rose 1.61%. Most major domestic indices also rose last week [8]. - In the CSI 300 index, the telecommunications, industrial, and financial sectors had relatively large increases. In the CSI 500 index, the industrial, public utilities, and optional consumption sectors showed relatively good performance [9]. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Among the stock index futures' main contracts last week, IM had the largest increase and the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures declined [11][13]. - The basis (futures - spot) of stock index futures' main contracts and the cross - variety ratio of stock index futures' main contracts are presented in the relevant charts [16]. Index Valuation Tracking - The PE (TTM) of the Shanghai Composite Index is 14.13 times, the CSI 300 index is 12.28 times, the SSE 50 index is 10.76 times, the CSI 500 index is 27.66 times, and the CSI 1000 index is 36.02 times [17][19]. Market Capital Flow Review - The number of new investors in the two markets and the share of newly established equity - biased funds are presented in the relevant charts. The capital interest rate declined last week, and the central bank had a net capital withdrawal [22].