Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights a potential decline in production, an increase in US gas prices, and lower year-on-year inventory levels, leading to a rise in European gas prices [1][6] - It emphasizes the ongoing adjustments in pricing mechanisms and the gradual recovery of demand, suggesting a favorable outlook for gas companies [6][59] Summary by Sections Price Tracking - As of May 9, 2025, US HH, European TTF, East Asia JKM, and China's LNG prices have increased by 4%, 3.9%, 1.7%, 0%, and 7.3% respectively, with prices at 0.8, 2.9, 2.9, 3.1, and 3.1 yuan per cubic meter [11][16] Supply and Demand Analysis - US natural gas production may decline as some energy companies reduce drilling rigs, with average total supply decreasing by 0.5% week-on-week to 1,099 billion cubic feet per day, while total demand fell by 1.8% to 950 billion cubic feet per day [18] - European gas consumption in May 2025 was 605 billion cubic meters, up 1.8% year-on-year, but inventory levels were down 13.6% year-on-year [23][30] Pricing Progress - Nationwide pricing adjustments are being implemented, with 61% of cities having initiated residential pricing reforms, leading to improved profitability and valuation recovery for city gas companies [43] Important Events - The report notes that tariffs on US LNG have increased to 140%, which has a limited impact due to the small share of US LNG in total imports [51][53] - The European Commission has voted to introduce more flexible natural gas storage filling targets to avoid supply shortages [56][58] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that can optimize costs and benefit from the ongoing pricing adjustments, highlighting key companies such as Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy [59] - It suggests monitoring companies with quality long-term contracts and flexible operations, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Holdings [59]
燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报：产量或下降美国气价提升，库存同比偏低欧洲气价提升
Soochow Securities·2025-05-12 02:23