宝城期货煤焦早报-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the 2509 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, suggesting an oscillation approach. The market sentiment is bearish, and coking coal maintains a weak trend [1]. - For the 2509 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively, also suggesting an oscillation approach. Due to insufficient cost support, coke oscillates and weakens [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal (JM) - Price and Cost: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimao Port is 1030 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1003 yuan/ton [5]. - Policy Impact: On May 7, a series of major favorable policies were announced at a press conference, but the coking coal futures still oscillate weakly due to obvious fundamental pressure and a loose supply pattern [5]. - Supply and Demand: The safety supervision environment in domestic main production areas is stable, coal production in Shanxi is rising, and the customs clearance efficiency at the China - Mongolia 288 Port is acceptable. In the week of May 9, the combined daily average output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 114.22 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.19 tons. Since late March, the recovery of coke output on the demand side has not reversed the loose supply situation of coking coal, and the market sentiment remains bearish [5]. 3.2 Coke (J) - Fundamental Situation: The fundamental pattern of coke has not changed much, with supply and demand remaining at a high level. Short - term demand support is good, but the growth rate on the demand side has started to decline, and the room for further increase in molten iron output is limited [6]. - Price and Cost: As of the latest quotation, the FOB price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at the port is 1440 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period, and the cost of equivalent futures warehouse receipts is about 1585 yuan/ton; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at the port is 1320 yuan/ton, and the cost of equivalent warehouse receipts is about 1454 yuan/ton [6]. - Policy and Market Outlook: On May 7, a "package" of incremental policies were announced. Although there is short - term demand for coke, overseas risks and cost - side pressure from coking coal still exist. It is expected that the main contract of coke will maintain low - level oscillation in the near future [6].