宏观“月月谈”系列之六：5月宏观月报：内外博弈下的政策“变局”？-20250512

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - Trump's tariff policy raised the average US tariff rate to 27%, exceeding levels not seen since the 1930s, significantly increasing global recession risks[11] - The uncertainty index for US economic policy rose from 504 in March to 566 in April, indicating heightened economic and trade uncertainty[22] - The probability of a US recession increased from 39% at the end of March to 63% by the end of April, reflecting growing recession concerns[22] Group 2: Domestic Market Dynamics - In April, China's exports rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, driven by "export grabbing" strategies[28] - The manufacturing PMI production index remained near the neutral line at 49.8%, indicating stable production levels despite external pressures[34] - Consumer confidence, as measured by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, fell to 52.2, the lowest since 2022, reflecting rising inflation expectations[22] Group 3: Policy Responses - A series of financial policies were announced in early May, including a surprise reduction in the reserve requirement ratio, expected to inject approximately 1 trillion yuan into the market[45] - The Central Political Bureau emphasized the need for timely implementation of incremental reserve policies in response to changing economic conditions[42] - The issuance of special government bonds was accelerated, with plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in special bonds earlier than in 2024, aimed at supporting economic stability[42]