Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of major agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are expected to be in a state of shock, with an overall bias towards a weak shock [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Price View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [5][6]. - Core Logic: With the overall stable - to - weak spot prices of soybean meal in North China and Northeast China, the futures price fluctuates narrowly. The spot basis of soybean meal has accelerated its decline to 200, and market sentiment has weakened. With the expected arrival of a large number of imported soybeans gradually materializing, the domestic supply pressure after May is gradually emerging. Due to the low physical inventory of feed enterprises, there is still restocking demand in the later stage. The short - term soybean meal inventory has not yet reached an inflection point, and the accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills is expected to occur in late May. The short - term futures price of soybean meal will maintain a range - bound shock [5]. Palm Oil (P) - Price View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6][7]. - Core Logic: With the increasing supply of palm oil in Southeast Asia, the export competitiveness and demand prospects of palm oil will affect its inventory pressure. In China, with the increase in palm oil purchases, the domestic inventory is expected to rise from a low level. The reverse substitution of domestic palm oil has not started. In the oil and fat sector, although palm oil has substitution potential, the spot performance is limited, and there is a lack of obvious driving factors. Without capital attention, the futures price of palm oil will continue to follow the market passively [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - Price View: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6]. - Core Logic: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel restocking demand, the price is in a state of shock - weak [6].
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250512
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-05-12 02:39