高盛：中国思考-2024 财年& 2025 年第一季度收益手册

Investment Rating - The report presents a refreshed China Growth Portfolio, screening for 30 names across 11 GICS Industry Groups, aimed at identifying growth opportunities with strong risk/reward profiles [1][69]. Core Insights - Offshore-listed companies continue to outperform A-shares, with MSCI China showing a 14% year-over-year profit growth compared to 0% for CSI300 [3][9]. - Revenue growth for listed companies has reached record lows, with a decline of 1% year-over-year, primarily due to deflation affecting upstream sectors [10][14]. - Aggregate net profits for all listed Chinese companies grew by 4% year-over-year in FY2024, which is below the nominal GDP growth of 5% [9][14]. - Capital expenditure (Capex) growth has slowed to historical lows, decreasing by 4% year-over-year amid weak demand and overcapacity concerns [5][33]. - Total dividends and buybacks reached RMB 3.5 trillion in 2024, resulting in a total shareholder return yield of 3.6%, the highest level recorded [36][39]. - Consumer-related sectors showed resilience with aggregate revenue growth of 7% year-over-year in FY24, with services outpacing goods [46][47]. Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - FY24 profit growth for MSCI China was 14% year-over-year, while CSI300 remained flat [3][9]. - Aggregate earnings for all listed companies in FY2024 grew by 4% year-over-year, with a notable decline in 4Q24 earnings by 3% year-over-year [9][14]. Revenue Trends - Revenue growth for all listed companies fell below zero for the first time, recording a decline of 1% year-over-year due to deflation [14][10]. - Upstream sectors such as Energy, Property, and Materials were particularly affected by PPI deflation [14][10]. Capital Expenditure - Capex growth for the listed universe fell to negative territory for the first time since 2015, with a 4% year-over-year decline [33][28]. - The emergence of AI technologies is expected to influence future Capex decisions positively [27][33]. Shareholder Returns - Total shareholder returns reached a historical high of 3.6% in 2024, driven by significant buybacks and dividends totaling RMB 3.5 trillion [36][39]. - The net buyback ratio for MSCI China turned positive for the first time, indicating a shift towards accretive shareholder returns [39][36]. Consumer Sector Insights - Consumer-related sectors experienced resilient revenue growth of 7% year-over-year, with services consumption leading the growth [46][47]. - Earnings growth in goods consumption was supported by consumer goods trade-in programs, while services showed better performance due to improved Capex and cost discipline [46][47]. Property and Labor Market Conditions - The property market remains soft, with 60% of listed developers reporting losses in FY24 [52][48]. - The workforce saw nearly no expansion, with the total number of employees in listed companies remaining at 40 million in 2024 [52][52]. Government Subsidies - Direct government subsidies to A-share listed companies decreased to RMB 211 billion in 2024, accounting for 3.8% of total net income [63][58]. Key Themes from Earnings Calls - Tariffs and AI were prominent topics during earnings calls, with companies expressing concerns over trade policies and optimism regarding AI advancements [64][68].