Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly; Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate upward [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly; Coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is recommended for cautious trading within a range; Aluminum is recommended for observation; Nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies; Tin is recommended for trading within a range; Gold is recommended for building positions on dips after a full price correction; Silver is recommended for trading within a range [1][12][17][19] - Energy Chemicals: PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly; Caustic soda is expected to fluctuate weakly; Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly; Urea is recommended for interval operation; Methanol is recommended for interval operation; Plastic is expected to fluctuate; Soda ash is recommended for holding short positions in call options [1][21][25][27] - Cotton Spinning Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate and rebound; Apples are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate weakly [1][29][30] - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs are expected to fluctuate weakly; Eggs are recommended for short - selling on rallies; Corn is expected to fluctuate strongly; Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate at a low level; Oils are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35][37] Core Views The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes the market based on factors such as macro - economic data, industry supply and demand, and trade policies. For example, in the macro - finance sector, international trade policies and domestic economic data affect the performance of index futures and Treasury bonds. In the commodity sectors, supply - demand relationships, production costs, and trade frictions play important roles in determining price trends [5][7][12] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Index Futures: Influenced by international trade policies and domestic economic data, such as Japan's "zero - tariff" demand, Sino - US trade talks, and China's CPI and PPI data, the index futures are expected to fluctuate strongly [5] - Treasury Bonds: The adjustment in the bond market is related to capital expectations. The pricing logic of the futures market is that the steepening of the curve may be near the end. The opportunities in the bond market lie in the medium - long end of the curve, and the potential risks come from the short end [5] Black Building Materials - Rebar: The price of rebar futures is lower than the long - process cost, with a low static valuation. The policy is expected to have repeated games on Sino - US tariffs, and the probability of large - scale fiscal stimulus policies in the short term is small. The supply - demand situation is fair, but the market expectation is weak due to tariff and seasonal factors, so the price is expected to fluctuate [7] - Iron Ore: The global shipment of iron ore has declined slightly, with a significant drop in Australian shipments. The demand for iron ore is approaching the traditional off - season, and the high - level pig iron production has limited upward space. Considering the peak of pig iron production and continuous international trade frictions, the iron ore 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [7][8] - Coking Coal and Coke: For coking coal, the supply pressure in some regions is emerging, and the demand is limited. For coke, the supply is stable, and the demand is affected by the weak terminal demand for steel. Overall, the coking coal and coke market is expected to fluctuate [9][10] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The global trade situation has eased, but the negative impact of the previous trade war on the economy still exists. The domestic copper inventory has decreased, and the support for copper prices from fundamentals is strong, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended for cautious trading within a range [12] - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is increasing, and the price is decreasing. The alumina market is in a state of coexistence of production, resumption, and reduction. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity is increasing, and the demand is expected to weaken. It is recommended for observation [14] - Nickel: The macro - environment is not optimistic, and the supply of nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel ore is firm, but the pure nickel is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended for observation or short - selling on rallies [15][16] - Tin: The domestic refined tin production has decreased, and the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of复产. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended for trading within a range [17] - Gold and Silver: Affected by Sino - US trade talks, US economic data, and tariff policies, the prices of gold and silver are expected to fluctuate. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in July, and the central bank's gold - buying demand and risk - aversion sentiment support the prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the Fed's April inflation data [19] Energy Chemicals - PVC: In the long - term, PVC demand is affected by the real estate industry, and the export is restricted. The supply is expected to increase, and the inventory is still high. The price is at a low level, and the macro - situation dominates. It is recommended to pay attention to tariff negotiations and domestic stimulus policies [21] - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda has rebounded, but the supply pressure is large in the medium - term, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the delivery volume of Weiqiao, inventory reduction, alumina production, and exports [22] - Rubber: In the short - term, the price of rubber is supported by the delay of rubber tapping in Thailand, but the downstream demand improvement is not obvious, and the inventory is increasing. In the long - term, if there is no major reversal in policies and tariffs, the market will be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. It is recommended to pay attention to tariff trends, rubber - tapping policies, and weather conditions [23][24] - Urea: Driven by export news, the urea price has risen and is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, and the demand for fertilizers in the south and north will be released. It is recommended to pay attention to compound fertilizer production, urea plant maintenance, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [25] - Methanol: After the holiday, the supply has increased and the demand has decreased. The downstream is cautious in purchasing. The supply is expected to continue to increase, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes, methanol plant maintenance, methanol - to - olefin production, coal prices, and international crude oil prices [26] - Plastic: Affected by tariffs, the plastic price has dropped. The supply pressure is large due to new capacity, and the demand is in the off - season. Although there are some positive factors, the short - term is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream demand, domestic stimulus policies, tariff games, and crude oil price fluctuations [27] - Soda Ash: The spot price of soda ash is firm, but the futures price has dropped slightly due to insufficient expected maintenance. The supply is still high, but the maintenance is expected to increase. The downstream is not optimistic. It is recommended for short - term observation and to pay attention to short - term lows and 9 - 1 positive spread opportunities [28] Cotton Spinning Industry Chain - Cotton: The global cotton supply - demand is still loose, the downstream consumption is weak, and the Sino - US trade friction has uncertainties. The cotton price is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [29] - Apples: The current apple inventory is low, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [30] - PTA: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies and OPEC's production increase expectations, the cost of PTA has decreased. Although the supply - demand is good and the inventory is decreasing, the price is not optimistic. It is recommended to pay attention to the 4200 support level [30] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The supply of pigs is increasing and postponed, putting pressure on the pig price. However, the futures discount has already reflected the weak expectation, so the decline is limited. It is recommended to stop profit on short positions and short on rallies [33] - Eggs: After the May Day holiday, the demand has declined, and the supply is increasing, putting pressure on the egg price. In the long - term, the supply is expected to increase. The 06 contract is expected to oscillate at a low level, and the 08 and 09 contracts are recommended for short - selling on rallies [35] - Corn: The supply of corn from the grassroots level has decreased, and the market is bullish. In the long - term, the new crop yield may decrease, and the import may continue to decline, but the price increase is limited by substitutes. It is recommended to wait for dips to go long [35] - Soybean Meal: In the short - term, the supply of soybean meal is increasing, and the price is expected to decline. In the long - term, due to tariff policies and weather factors, the cost will increase, and the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short - term and go long on dips in the long - term [37] - Oils: Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts are expected to fluctuate weakly. In the short - term, the supply pressure of soybean oil and palm oil is large, and the price of rapeseed oil is relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the spread expansion strategy of soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm 09 contracts [37][38][42]
长江期货市场交易指引-20250512
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-05-12 02:56