国证国际港股晨报-20250512

Group 1: Market Overview - The report indicates that the Hong Kong stock market has shown a positive trend, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 22,867 points, up 91 points or 0.40% [2] - The market experienced a net inflow of capital from the North, with a total of 4.044 billion HKD, reversing the previous day's outflow of 2.385 billion HKD [2] - The performance of the Hang Seng Index over the week was an increase of 363 points or 1.61%, marking four consecutive weeks of gains [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - Among the 12 Hang Seng Composite Index industry indices, 9 sectors rose while 3 sectors declined, with the leading sectors being Energy, Consumer Discretionary, Financials, Real Estate & Construction, and Conglomerates, showing gains between 0.57% and 1.12% [3] - The sectors that declined included Consumer Staples, Information Technology, and Materials, with respective declines of 0.62%, 0.56%, and 0.41% [3] Group 3: Trade Negotiations - High-level trade talks between China and the U.S. were described as constructive, with both sides agreeing to establish a trade negotiation mechanism [4] - U.S. Treasury Secretary reported substantial progress in the talks, indicating a willingness to reach an agreement to alleviate the significant trade deficit with China [4] - The report suggests that the trade negotiations may have a positive impact on the market, although challenges remain due to the unpredictable nature of U.S. President Trump's approach [5] Group 4: Company Analysis - Li Ning (2331.HK) - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) showed low single-digit growth year-on-year in Q1 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit growth and retail channels facing a slight decline [7] - The e-commerce channel performed well, achieving a growth rate of 10-20%, driven primarily by the running category, which saw strong sales of the new model, the Feidian 5 Ultra [7] - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, resulting in a net decrease of 29 stores by the end of March 2025, with plans for future store expansion [7] Group 5: Future Outlook for Li Ning - The report anticipates that the negative impact of tariffs will be minimal, as the company's revenue is primarily domestic, and any prolonged tariff situation may stimulate domestic demand for sports products [8] - Li Ning's strategy of "single brand, multiple categories, and multiple channels" is expected to yield better results, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 1.05, 1.14, and 1.21 HKD respectively [8] - The target price for Li Ning is set at 20.16 HKD, based on a 2025 PE of 18 times, maintaining a "Buy" rating [8]