镍不锈钢早报：菲律宾再传禁矿消息，可靠度众说纷纭-20250512

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Nickel - Hold [1] - Stainless Steel - Hold [1] - Zinc - Bearish Outlook [3][4] 2. Core Views Nickel and Stainless Steel - The rumor of the Philippines banning nickel ore exports, if true, could turn China's nickel element supply from surplus to shortage. The spot price of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, and the seasonal loosening of the ore market is yet to appear, but the possibility of loosening at the ore end remains high. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China is still at a high level, and the production cost of electrowinning nickel is expected to decline. The short - term rise in nickel prices is affected by the rumor, but the reliability of the news is questionable, so it is advisable to wait and see [1]. Zinc - The impact of tariffs has temporarily subsided. In the short term, supply is stable with a slight increase, while the peak demand season has passed. Manufacturers are pessimistic about terminal demand, so the overall outlook is bearish [3][4]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Macro & Industry News - The Philippines government plans to ban nickel ore exports from June 2025, which may hit Indonesia's nickel smelting industry. In 2024, Indonesia imported about 10 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines. The ban may cause a global supply crunch and price increase of nickel ore, but the reliability of this news is in doubt [1]. Supply - If the Philippines bans nickel ore exports, China's nickel element supply may shift from surplus to shortage. The spot price of nickel ore from the Philippines has rebounded, and the seasonal loosening of the ore market is yet to appear. The profit of producing nickel iron from medium - grade nickel ore is close to the break - even point, while that from low - grade nickel ore is still substantial. The overall supply of electrolytic nickel in China has decreased month - on - month but remains at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. Demand - In the process of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, the nickel cost is about 127,000 yuan, which is consistent with the technical pressure level. The demand support from downstream nickel sulfate cost is about 134,000 yuan/ton, and the profit threshold for external procurement manufacturers is about 137,000 yuan/ton, both lower than before. The possibility of stainless steel production cuts is small [2]. Zinc Macro & Industry News - In April 2025, the retail volume of the national passenger car market was 1.755 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 9.4%. The cumulative retail volume this year is 6.872 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [3]. Supply - The profit of zinc mining enterprises has been affected by tariff policies, but it is still at a relatively medium - high level. The TC price has not declined, indicating no production cuts at the ore end, and imports at the ore end have significantly recovered. The profit of integrated enterprises has shrunk but is still not low, and the profit of smelting enterprises has turned positive. The possibility of production cuts at the supply end is very small, and the overall supply is loosening [3]. Demand - The peak demand season is approaching the end. In the galvanizing industry, the capacity utilization rate and production are not high, and manufacturers' production enthusiasm is low due to pessimism about future demand. The terminal demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline. In the die - casting alloy market, manufacturers produce on demand, and the market is expected to maintain rigid - demand transactions. In the zinc oxide market, the supply is relatively sufficient, and the possibility of manufacturers increasing the operating rate is low [4].