国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250512

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: News affects sentiment, but fundamental changes are limited [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Social inventories are increasing marginally, and the futures price is supported by cost expectations [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply and demand are both weak, with a weak and volatile trend [2][7]. - Industrial Silicon: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities when prices rise [2][10]. - Polysilicon: Monitor the meeting situation today [2][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 123,450 yuan, down 180 yuan from T - 1; the stainless - steel main contract was 12,720 yuan, up 15 yuan from T - 1. Various data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads showed different changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: The production line of Indonesia's GNI nickel - iron project has gradually recovered, and the government has adjusted resource tax rates. There are also news about potential export restrictions from Canada and the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral trend [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2507 contract was 63,020 yuan, down 1,260 yuan from T - 1. Data on trading volume, positions, and various lithium - related prices showed different trends [7]. - Macro and Industry News: SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and new energy vehicle sales and Chile's lithium salt exports had specific changes [7][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2506 closing price was 8,205 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan from T - 1; the PS2506 closing price was 37,830 yuan/ton, up 880 yuan from T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, prices, profits, and inventories [11]. - Macro and Industry News: A 4GW HBC solar cell project joint - venture agreement was signed [12][13]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (weakly bearish), and that of polysilicon is 1 (weakly bullish) [13].