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国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250512
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-05-12 03:41
  1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Palm oil: Pressure has been released in the short - term, and there may be support below [3][5]. - Soybean oil: Oscillating to find the bottom, remaining relatively strong among varieties [3][5]. - Soybean meal: Weak in the short - term, waiting for the May USDA supply - demand report [3][10]. - Soybean: Weakly oscillating [3][10]. - Corn: Oscillating with an upward bias [3][13]. - Sugar: Stabilizing in the short - term [3][18]. - Cotton: Maintaining an oscillating trend [3][22]. - Eggs: Oscillating and adjusting [3][28]. - Hogs: Near - term contradictions are not obvious [3][30]. - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the purchases of oil mills [3][35]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Tracking: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 7,886 yuan/ton (-0.28%), and night - session was 7,940 yuan/ton (0.68%); soybean oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were both 7,780 yuan/ton, with a day - session increase of 0.26% [5]. - Macro and Industry News: USDA reported a 120,000 - ton soybean export to Pakistan in the 2025/26 period; Brazil's 2024/25 soybean commercial sales reached 57% of the expected output, up 6.3 percentage points from last month [6][8]. - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both 0 [9]. 3.2 Soybean Meal and Soybean - Fundamental Tracking: DCE soybean 2507's day - session closing price was 4,153 yuan/ton (-0.16, -0.38%), and night - session was 4,171 yuan/ton (-4, -0.10%); DCE soybean meal 2509's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,899 yuan/ton and 2,900 yuan/ton respectively, both down 0.45% [10]. - Macro and Industry News: On May 9, CBOT soybeans rose due to upcoming China - US negotiations and an export sales report; however, ideal sowing conditions in the US soybean belt limited the upward trend, and China's April soybean imports dropped to a ten - year low [12]. - Trend Intensity: Soybean meal and soybean trend intensities are both - 1 [12]. 3.3 Corn - Fundamental Tracking: C2507's day - session closing price was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.30%), and night - session was 2,375 yuan/ton (0.00%); C2509's day - session closing price was 2,385 yuan/ton (0.13%), and night - session was 2,383 yuan/ton (-0.08%) [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn port collection prices were 2,260 - 2,280 yuan/ton (new crop listing), and prices in various regions showed different trends [15]. - Trend Intensity: Corn trend intensity is 1 [16]. 3.4 Sugar - Fundamental Tracking: Raw sugar price was 17.82 cents/pound (0.3), mainstream spot price was 6,150 yuan/ton (20), and futures main - contract price was 5,839 yuan/ton (26) [18]. - Macro and Industry News: High - frequency information showed that factors such as rising crude oil prices and Brazil's slightly accelerated crushing progress affected the sugar market; domestic and international sugar supply - demand situations were also reported [18][19]. - Trend Intensity: Sugar trend intensity is 1 [20]. 3.5 Cotton - Fundamental Tracking: CF2509's day - session closing price was 12,950 yuan/ton (0.39%), and night - session was 12,980 yuan/ton (0.23%); CY2507's day - session closing price was 19,220 yuan/ton (-0.21%), and night - session was 19,330 yuan/ton (0.57%) [22]. - Macro and Industry News: Domestic cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton textile enterprise situation was generally stable; ICE cotton was waiting for USDA reports [23][24]. - Trend Intensity: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [25]. 3.6 Eggs - Fundamental Tracking: Egg 2507's closing price was 3,034 yuan/500 kilograms (0.46%), and Egg 2509's was 3,767 yuan/500 kilograms (0.21%) [28]. - Trend Intensity: Egg trend intensity is 0 [28]. 3.7 Hogs - Fundamental Tracking: Henan's spot price was 15,000 yuan/ton (-50), Sichuan's was 14,650 yuan/ton (-100), and Guangdong's was 15,290 yuan/ton (-150) [32]. - Market Logic: After the May Day holiday, second - fattening still had rotation intentions, but price differences were inverted; the focus was on inventory accumulation and far - month spread arbitrage strategies [34]. - Trend Intensity: Hog trend intensity is 0 [33]. 3.8 Peanuts - Fundamental Tracking: Liaoning 308 general - quality peanuts' price was 8,100 yuan/ton (0), Henan Baisha general - quality peanuts' was 8,060 yuan/ton (0) [35]. - Spot Market Focus: In various regions, peanut prices were generally stable, with some regions showing slight price increases or decreases due to factors such as supply and demand [36]. - Trend Intensity: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [39].