高盛：全球钢铁-钢铁市场晴雨表

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the steel industry Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing varied price movements across different regions, with the US showing the highest year-to-date price increase of 34% and Europe at 28% [3] - China's crude steel production increased by 18% month-on-month in March 2025, indicating a recovery from previous declines [3] - The report highlights that India is the main growth driver in steel production, with an 8% year-on-year increase [3] Global Prices - In April, hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices in Brazil declined by 1% month-on-month, while prices in China, Japan, and the US fell by 3%, 2%, and 2% respectively [3] - On a year-to-date basis, the highest price increases have occurred in the US (+34%) and Europe (+28%) [3][6] Regional Production Insights - China's crude steel production showed a year-on-year growth of 5% in March, recovering from earlier declines [3] - EU crude steel production rose by 16% month-on-month in March but remained flat year-on-year [3] - Latin America saw a 9% month-on-month increase in crude steel production in March, reverting to a 7% year-on-year growth [3] Price Performance - HRC price performance in various regions for April shows the following: EU at $745 (+7.6% month-on-month, +28% year-to-date), US at $1,020 (-2.1% month-on-month, +34.1% year-to-date), and China at $449 (-3.4% month-on-month, -4.7% year-to-date) [6] - Rebar prices in the EU increased by 6.3% month-on-month and 17% year-to-date, while in China, prices decreased by 4.3% month-on-month [13] Capacity Utilization - Global effective steel capacity utilization is reported at varying levels, with China showing a utilization rate of 91.6% in April 2025 [36] - The report indicates that spare capacity by region is significant, with China having the highest spare capacity at 80 million tonnes [25] Trade and Demand - The report notes an increase in flat steel demand, which is above last year's levels, indicating a positive trend in the market [55] - Long steel demand has also increased over the past two weeks, suggesting a recovery in this segment [59] Steelmakers' Profitability - The profitability of steelmakers is under pressure as HRC prices decreased by 3% month-on-month and rebar prices by 4% month-on-month in China [62] - The report highlights that the spreads for HRC and rebar have decreased, impacting overall profitability [66]