汇丰：中国贸易-对非美国市场出口加速

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for China's trade, with export growth showing an upside surprise despite US tariffs, leading to a trade surplus of USD 96.2 billion in April [5][6]. Core Insights - China's exports to non-US markets, particularly ASEAN, have accelerated, contributing to overall export growth of 8.1% year-on-year in April, which was significantly higher than the HSBC and Bloomberg forecasts of 2.0% [5][6]. - Imports showed a narrower decline of 0.2% year-on-year in April, aided by a surge in processing imports, indicating resilience in trade despite external pressures [5][10]. - The report highlights the ongoing US-China trade tensions and potential tariffs on third markets as significant risks, emphasizing the importance of domestic policy support for sustaining growth [2][6]. Summary by Sections Trade Data Overview - Exports in April 2025 increased by 8.1% year-on-year, while imports declined by only 0.2% year-on-year, showcasing a shift in trade dynamics [3][5]. - Exports to the US fell sharply by 21.0% year-on-year in April, primarily due to escalating trade tensions and new tariffs [3][6]. Market Breakdown - Exports to ASEAN markets rose by 20.8% year-on-year in April, while exports to the EU increased by 8.3% [3][7]. - Imports from the US decreased by 13.8% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of retaliatory tariffs [3][10]. Product Breakdown - Mechanical and electrical products saw a year-on-year export growth of 10.1%, while high-tech products grew by 6.5% [3]. - Conversely, clothing and toys exports experienced a decline of 2.3% year-on-year [3][6]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that US-China trade negotiations may lead to a partial rollback of tariffs, but significant headwinds for exports to the US are expected to persist [6][13]. - Domestic policy measures, including monetary easing and fiscal policies, are deemed crucial for stabilizing growth amid external uncertainties [13].