Investment Rating - The report emphasizes a positive outlook on investment opportunities in Asia, particularly in technology and innovation sectors, suggesting a barbell strategy that balances high dividend stocks with tech innovation champions [22][5]. Core Insights - Innovation, particularly driven by Artificial Intelligence (AI), is identified as the main engine for global economic growth and earnings growth in 2026, with a focus on the most innovative countries, primarily the US and Asia [5][6]. - The report highlights the importance of diversifying investment themes to manage risks associated with high correlation among tech-focused investments, suggesting a mix of Asia-focused themes and income-oriented opportunities [8][17]. Thematic Investment Strategy - The report advocates for a thematic investment strategy that transcends traditional sector and geographic classifications, focusing on long-term trends such as Disruptive Technologies, Evolving Society, and Climate Action [12][15]. - It introduces new themes based on short-term forces, such as 'Asia's Data Centre Boom' and 'M&A and Shareholder Value Creation', reflecting the dynamic nature of the investment landscape [16]. High Conviction Themes - The report identifies four high conviction themes in Asia: 1. Asia's Data Centre Boom 2. China's Innovation Champions 3. Power Up Asian Shareholder Returns 4. High Quality Asian Credit [23][22]. Asia's Data Centre Boom - Asia Pacific is projected to have the fastest build-out of data centres by 2030, driven by strong government support, competitive energy costs, and high local demand for digital services [31][25]. - The region's renewable energy infrastructure and cost advantages position it favorably compared to the US and Europe in meeting the energy requirements of data centres [32][50]. China's Innovation Champions - China's AI computing power is expected to double by 2025 and double again by 2027, driven by significant investments and supportive government policies [53][56]. - The report focuses on national champions across the AI value chain, highlighting the rapid growth of China's AI public cloud market [53][60]. Power Up Asian Shareholder Returns - The report notes that corporate governance reforms in Asia are expected to enhance shareholder returns, with higher dividend payouts projected to improve return on equity (ROE) in the region [65][37]. - The Singapore government's initiatives to improve governance and shareholder returns are highlighted as key drivers for investment opportunities [63][64]. High Quality Asian Credit - The report emphasizes the attractiveness of Asian investment-grade (IG) bonds, particularly in China and India, supported by favorable supply-demand dynamics and expected interest rate cuts [75][76]. - Asian IG bonds are projected to offer attractive yields, benefiting from strong local investor demand and global diversification flows [38][76]. Disruptive Technologies - The report identifies two high conviction themes under Disruptive Technologies: Aerospace and Security, and Evolving AI Ecosystem, highlighting the significant investments in digital infrastructure and the growing demand for AI capabilities [84][83]. - The evolving AI ecosystem is driving substantial investments in data centres and cloud computing capacity, with a projected market growth from approximately USD 302 billion in 2023 to USD 622 billion by 2030 [111][116]. Climate Action - The report outlines the urgent need for renewable energy sources driven by rising energy demands from AI applications, with significant investments expected in clean energy technologies [121][122]. - The transition to renewable energy is seen as a strategic investment opportunity, with a focus on energy security and biodiversity management as key themes [130][132].

市场传播 仅供专业客户使用，不应分发给或依赖于零售客户 新规章 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 更多一手调研纪要和海外投行研报数据加V：shuimu2026 2025年中期 投资展望 投资的价值及其产生的任何收入可能会下降也可能会上升，投资者可能无法收回最初投资的金额。仅供说明目的，本文件是关于近期经济条件演变的全球视角 这是市场⽀持，不构成投资建议，也不建议买⼊或卖出投资。这则评论不是投资研究的结果，也不受法律要求的 约束，旨在促进投资研究的独⽴性，并且是 经济条件。这是不构成投资建议或买卖投资建议的营销⽀持 。此评论不是投资研究的结果，也不受法律 监管要求的约束，旨在促进投资研究的独⽴ 不受任何发布前交易的禁令的限制 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Foreword ⽬录 | V：shuimu2026 | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on ZTO Express (ZTO US, TP USD22.00) and STO Express (002468 CH, TP RMB14.10), while J&T Express (1519 HK, Hold, TP HKD9.00) is seen as having upside potential [6][10][49]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector in China is expected to benefit from new policy guidance aimed at preventing aggressive price competition, which has previously led to an 8% decline in average revenue per parcel (ARPP) despite a 20% increase in volume [2][10]. - Historical trends indicate that the sector has re-rated positively following government interventions to stabilize pricing, with a notable 48% rally in September 2021 after delivery fee increases [4][10]. - The current consensus has cut ZTO's earnings estimates by 15% due to intensified price competition, resulting in a forward PE multiple of 10.4x, significantly below its historical average of 19.2x, suggesting potential downside protection for the stock [3][10]. Summary by Sections Policy Impact - The State Post Bureau's recent conference emphasized tighter regulations to curb aggressive pricing strategies, which has already led to a 5-10% increase in share prices for express delivery companies [2][10]. - The report anticipates that if express delivery companies respond to the new policy with price hikes, a sustainable re-rating of the sector could occur [4]. Financial Projections - ZTO is projected to achieve 9% earnings growth by 2025, with a 21% increase in volume, despite an expected 11% decline in ARPP [5]. - A sensitivity analysis indicates that a 1 percentage point improvement in ARPP could lead to a 3 percentage point increase in net profit growth [5]. Company Ratings and Targets - ZTO Express is highlighted as the domestic leader with a target price of USD22.00, while STO Express is also rated as a "Buy" with a target price of RMB14.10, benefiting from potential regulatory interventions [6][10]. - J&T Express is rated as a "Hold" with a target price of HKD9.00, reflecting its position as a laggard in the market but with potential upside as competition eases [6][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for C&D International, CR Land, and China Jinmao, while holding a "Hold" rating for COLI [27][29]. Core Insights - The strong share price momentum in the China real estate sector is attributed to the market's rapidly rebuilding of policy expectations, with investors optimistic about government efforts to stabilize the housing market [2][3]. - A bottom-up approach is emphasized, focusing on stocks that can remain resilient despite potential sales slowdowns, particularly state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that can monetize their assets effectively [3][4]. - The report highlights three key stocks: CRL for its quality investment property portfolio, C&D for its young landbank, and China Jinmao for its luxury project track record [4][8]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - Recent sales data shows a mixed performance across different tiers of cities, with Tier-1 cities experiencing a 36% year-on-year decline in sales, while Tier-2 and Tier-3 cities showed smaller declines of 19% and 18% respectively [9]. Stock Analysis - CR Land is noted for its strong sales momentum and solid execution track record, with a target price of HKD 36.30, implying a 26.5% upside [29]. - C&D International is highlighted for its competitive edge and expected margin recovery, with a target price of HKD 21.20, indicating a 27.4% upside [29]. - China Jinmao is recognized for its turnaround story and ambitious sales targets, with a target price of HKD 1.60, suggesting a 28% upside [29]. - COLI faces uncertainty regarding its investment thesis, leading to a "Hold" rating, with a target price of HKD 14.80, reflecting a 10.8% upside [29]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides a valuation summary for various property developers, indicating significant discounts to net asset values (NAV) for several companies, with CR Land and C&D International showing promising upside potential based on their current valuations [27][29].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Alibaba Group with a target price of USD 150.00, down from USD 176.00, indicating a potential upside of 38.9% from the current share price of USD 107.99 [2][11][15]. Core Insights - The report highlights aggressive investments in food delivery (FD) and insta-shopping (Insta), which are expected to dampen near-term earnings outlook but are crucial for market share growth [11][19]. - Cloud revenue is projected to grow robustly, exceeding 20% year-on-year in FY26, driven by strong demand for AI services [2][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of improving daily active users (DAU) and engagement with younger consumers to enhance market share and revenue [3][19]. Financial Performance and Estimates - Revenue estimates for FY26-28 have been increased by approximately 3-8%, while earnings estimates have been cut by 7-22% due to anticipated peak investments in the September quarter [2][52]. - For the June quarter, sales are expected to grow 4% year-on-year, with customer management revenue (CMR) and cloud revenue increasing by 11% and 23%, respectively [5][50]. - Adjusted EBITA is estimated to decline by 15% year-on-year to RMB 38.3 billion, reflecting a margin decrease of 3.4 percentage points [5][50]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Alibaba has gained significant market share in local services, with food delivery and insta-shopping market share increasing from over 20% in 2024 to 36% by July 2025 [3][21]. - The report notes that competition in the food delivery and insta-shopping sectors has intensified, with major players increasing subsidies to boost order volumes [19][21]. - The integration of Eleme and Fliggy into Taobao Tmall is part of Alibaba's strategy to consolidate leadership and enhance market share [3][19]. Cloud Computing and AI - Alibaba leads the GenAI IaaS service market with a 23.5% market share in the second half of 2024, with expectations of a 60%+ CAGR in the GenAI IaaS market from 2024 to 2027 [4][33]. - The report anticipates that Alibaba will leverage its scale in AI infrastructure and strong product capabilities to capitalize on the growing demand for AI services [4][28]. Valuation and Financial Ratios - The report provides a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation indicating that the domestic e-commerce, cloud, and cash components alone are worth USD 113.00 per share [2][39]. - Key financial ratios for FY26 include a PE ratio of 13.3x and an EV/EBITDA ratio of 8.8x, reflecting the company's valuation metrics [8][14].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The US has announced new tariffs on imports from various economies, effective from 1 August, with rates varying based on trade balances [2][11] - Countries like the UK, mainland China, and Vietnam have managed to maintain their baseline tariff rates due to existing trade deals, while others like India and the EU are in negotiations [3][29] - Significant tariff rates include 25% on imports from Japan and Korea, 25-36% on several ASEAN economies, and 50% on Brazilian imports, which may distort global trade data [4][6] - The report anticipates continued volatility in global trade data due to these tariffs, with potential material slowdowns in global goods trade towards the end of 2025 and early 2026 [6][41] - There are inflationary risks for the US as higher tariffs could lead to increased import costs, impacting consumer prices [7][42] Summary by Sections New Tariff Rates - New tariffs have been announced, with specific rates for various countries, set to take effect on 1 August [11][12] - The report includes a detailed table comparing new and previously suggested reciprocal tariff rates across different economies [13] Impact on Economies - Economies with significant exposure to the US market, such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Cambodia, may experience substantial impacts on their growth due to these tariffs [16][19] - The report highlights that sectoral tariffs will add additional burdens, particularly in industries like copper and pharmaceuticals [20][27] Trade Deals and Negotiations - Some economies have successfully negotiated trade deals, while others are still in discussions, with the EU and India being notable examples [29][30] - The report suggests that ongoing negotiations may lead to further adjustments in tariff rates before the implementation date [33] Global Trade Volatility - The first half of 2025 has seen significant volatility in global trade data, driven by frontloading of purchases ahead of tariff announcements [34][36] - The report predicts that as frontloading subsides, global goods trade flows will slow down significantly [41][42] Inflationary Pressures - The report indicates that the trade-weighted tariff on many products could increase input prices by over 10%, leading to inflationary risks in the US [42][46] - Early signs of inflationary pressures are already evident in the US PMI data, diverging from global trends [42][46]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chanhen (002895 CH), Yuntianhua (600096 CH), and NHU (002001 CH), while Skshu (603737 CH) and Yuhong (002271 CH) are rated "Hold" [3][4][8]. Core Insights - The phosphate sector is experiencing strong performance, with companies like NHU expecting a profit increase of 50-70% in 1H25, driven by resilient agricultural demand and rising prices [3]. - Chanhen and Yuntianhua are highlighted as top picks due to their earnings momentum and robust dividend profiles, with expected earnings growth of over 40% year-on-year for Chanhen in 2Q and around 10% for Yuntianhua [3][8]. - The report notes potential catalysts for growth, including rising fertilizer export prices and elevated phosphate rock prices during the peak planting season [3]. Summary by Sections Phosphate Sector - Phosphate companies are expected to lead the sector, with Chanhen and Yuntianhua showing strong earnings growth and dividend yields exceeding 6% in 2025 [3][8]. - NHU's profit guidance indicates overall sector strength, with a projected increase of 50-70% [3]. Building Materials - Skshu has issued positive profit guidance for 2Q, projecting earnings growth of 69-118% year-on-year, but the report maintains a "Hold" rating due to the growth being largely priced in [4]. - Yuhong is expected to face ongoing weakness in earnings due to challenges in new housing and engineering construction [4]. Commodity Chemicals - Satellite Chemical is facing headwinds with expected earnings declines due to turbulence in ethane/propane imports and operational risks [5]. - Wanhua and LB Group are also under pressure from anti-dumping duties affecting their core products, leading to a negative outlook for their 2Q earnings [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on container shipping, downgrading the sector due to structural headwinds and demand uncertainty beyond August [9][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that US tariffs have limited direct impact on the bulk and tanker markets, while the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased by 2% week-on-week, driven by higher Panamax earnings [9][10]. - The report suggests a buy rating for Maersk, a hold for SITC, and a reduction for several other companies in the container shipping sector, indicating a selective investment approach [9][10]. Summary by Sections US Tariff Updates - The Trump administration delayed the 10% baseline tariff and set various tariffs for key trading partners, with significant implications for trade dynamics [2]. - Tariffs on copper and other commodities are set to take effect, which may influence demand in the bulk market [4][53]. Container Shipping Trends - The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped 1.7% week-on-week, marking the fifth consecutive week of decline, although rates to the US showed some recovery [33][34]. - The report notes that while front-loading may temporarily boost cargo flows, significant demand uncertainty looms due to potential tariff impacts [3][9]. Baltic Dry Index and Dry Bulk Market - The BDI rose 2% week-on-week, with Panamax rates increasing by 14% due to strong demand in the Atlantic basin, while Capesize rates fell by 12% due to weak iron ore demand [52][58]. - The report anticipates a 3% growth in the dry bulk fleet but expects flattish demand, leading to a softening of freight rates in the coming years [58]. Freight Rates and Market Dynamics - Container shipping freight rates have shown variability, with the SCFI composite index reflecting a significant year-on-year decline of 43.3% [50]. - The report indicates that bunker prices and time charter rates are also trending, with specific rates for different vessel types being monitored closely [50][57].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for GDS, VNET, and SUNeVision, with target prices raised to USD42.80 for GDS, USD11.40 for VNET, and HKD10.10 for SUNeVision [4][8][29]. Core Insights - The GDS C-REIT IPO, which was 166 times oversubscribed and priced at 16.9x EV/2026 projected EBITDA, is driving a re-rating of the data center sector in China [2][8]. - The report highlights that while earnings visibility through 1H26 is well understood, additional catalysts such as new large wholesale orders and easing GPU export restrictions from the US could lead to upward revisions in earnings estimates [2][8]. - The report identifies VNET as the preferred investment due to its favorable positioning to benefit from AI demand growth in China, trading at a lower EV/2026e EBITDA multiple compared to GDS and SUNeVision [3]. Summary by Sections GDS Holdings - GDS's target price has been increased from USD34.70 to USD42.80, reflecting a 26% upside potential [4][34]. - The company is expected to maintain a net debt/adjusted EBITDA ratio below 6.5x by the end of 2025, improving from 7.2x at the end of 2024 [2]. - Revenue projections for GDS show a growth trajectory from CNY10,322 million in 2024 to CNY14,294 million by 2027, with an EBITDA margin expected to stabilize around 41.4% to 41.7% [9][10]. VNET Group - VNET's target price has been raised from USD10.40 to USD11.40, indicating a 47.1% upside potential [4][21]. - The company is projected to see revenue growth from CNY8,259 million in 2024 to CNY13,584 million by 2027, with an EBITDA margin improving from 27.5% to 31.6% over the same period [17][18]. SUNeVision - SUNeVision's target price remains at HKD10.10, with a 27.2% upside potential [4][29]. - Revenue is expected to grow from HKD2,674 million in 2024 to HKD5,387 million by 2027, with a consistent EBITDA margin around 71% [25][26].

Investment Rating - The report downgrades CMOC-H/A and CNM to Hold from Buy, maintains Hold ratings on MMG and JXC-H/A, and retains Buy ratings on Zijin-H/A [4][7]. Core Insights - The US has announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, leading to a spike in Comex copper prices by over 10% since the announcement [2]. - Post-tariff, copper prices in China and LME are expected to decline as the current excess flow of copper into the US reverses, impacting global supply and demand fundamentals [3]. - The report expresses caution regarding the short-term outlook for the Chinese copper sector due to the normalization of US copper inventory and its effect on demand [4]. Summary by Sections US Tariff Impact - The US imports approximately 50% of its refined copper demand, primarily from Chile, Canada, and Mexico, and the tariff is expected to create a significant market shift [2]. - Comex copper prices have surged, with a current premium of about 25% over LME prices, indicating market expectations of the tariff's impact [2]. Price and Inventory Trends - Following the tariff announcement, the report anticipates a decline in copper prices as the arbitrage opportunity reverses, leading to a normalization of US copper inventory levels [3]. - Global copper inventories have shown divergence, with LME inventories declining significantly while Comex inventories have surged to their highest levels since 2018 [15]. Company Ratings and Valuations - Zijin Mining maintains a Buy rating with unchanged target prices, reflecting strong fundamentals and expected earnings growth [48][49]. - CMOC-H/A's target price remains unchanged, but the downgrade to Hold reflects concerns over short-term demand and pricing pressures [51]. - MMG and Jiangxi Copper maintain Hold ratings, with target prices unchanged, indicating a cautious outlook amid potential price declines [54][57].