高盛：新兴市场交易员-新兴市场的上行潜力

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for Emerging Market (EM) equities, suggesting a strong case for relative outperformance against US equities [4][12][17]. Core Insights - EM equities have shown unusual outperformance, with MSCI EM returning +6% year-to-date, significantly outperforming SPX at -5% and its implied returns at -6% [8][12]. - The report highlights a growing need for diversification away from US assets, which could support stronger medium-term returns for EM equities, particularly domestic cyclicals [4][17][28]. - The macro environment is favorable for EM local fixed income, benefiting from a weaker US Dollar and lower commodity prices, leading to one of the best year-to-date performances in the past decade [33][37]. - EM currencies have recently appreciated against the Dollar, driven by improving global risk sentiment and repatriation flows, particularly in Asian low-yielders [50][58]. Summary by Sections EM Equities - EM equities have outperformed both SPX and historical betas, with a 15% rally since April lows and a current position only 1% lower than the February peak [4][12]. - The report notes that much of the rally is attributed to a decline in risk premia, despite weak earnings sentiment [12][17]. - Domestic cyclicals in EM are expected to perform better in an optimistic medium-term scenario, particularly in Brazil and South Africa [28][31]. EM Local Rates - The macro environment for EM local fixed income is supportive, with a broad-based rally driven by a weaker US Dollar and disinflationary trends [33][37]. - Recent EM inflation data has surprised to the downside, suggesting inflation could fall within central bank targets by year-end, providing more room for policy responses [41][44]. EM FX - EM FX has recently outperformed G9 FX, with Asian low-yielders leading the appreciation due to improved sentiment and repatriation flows [50][58]. - The report emphasizes that while recession risks remain elevated, there are growing right-tail risks for EM FX appreciation if market conditions improve [65]. EM Sovereign Credit - Recent widening of EM sovereign credit spreads has opened up some value, but the asymmetry remains unattractive due to high recession risks [70][74]. - The report suggests focusing on 'high-quality' sovereigns with solid fiscal outlooks and relatively attractive spread entry levels [70][74].