工程机械2024年报、2025年一季报总结：收入增长提速，看好β向全面景气升级

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the engineering machinery sector, indicating a potential upgrade to a comprehensive prosperity phase [2][9]. Core Insights - The recovery pace of excavators is accelerating, with the sector gradually transitioning towards comprehensive prosperity. In 2024 and the first four months of 2025, total excavator sales reached 201,100 and 83,500 units, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.1% and 21.4% [2][9]. - The main drivers of revenue growth in 2024 were exports, while domestic demand recovery is expected to further enhance growth in 2025 [8][20]. - The sector's overall revenue and profit performance showed positive growth in 2024, with a significant acceleration in growth in the first quarter of 2025 [20][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Operating Performance - The engineering machinery sector has shown a return to an upward revenue trajectory, with total revenue of 331.92 billion and 90.365 billion yuan in 2024 and Q1 2025, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 2.81% and 10.17% [20][25]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 25.373 billion and 8.685 billion yuan for the same periods, with year-on-year increases of 13.58% and 32.79% [20][25]. 1.1 Market Performance - The engineering machinery sector has consistently outperformed the broader market, with a cumulative increase of 22.86% in 2024 compared to 16.2% for the CSI 300 index [14][15]. - Key catalysts for this performance include macroeconomic policy adjustments and the ongoing recovery of domestic demand [14][15]. 1.2 Growth Potential - The report indicates a shift from an "export-only" growth model to a "dual-core" model driven by both domestic and international demand [20][27]. - The sector's international business expansion has helped mitigate the impact of domestic demand fluctuations [20][27]. 1.3 Profitability - Profitability has improved, with the gross profit margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 at 25.08% and 24.61%, respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 1.23 percentage points and 0.21 percentage points [8][20]. - The net profit margin for the same periods was 7.96% and 9.83%, with year-on-year increases of 0.85 percentage points and 1.56 percentage points [8][20]. 1.4 Quality of Operations - The sector has seen a significant improvement in operating cash flow, achieving 32.869 billion yuan in 2024, with a net cash ratio of 1.3, indicating strong risk management capabilities [8][20]. 2. Engineering Machinery - The excavator segment is experiencing high growth, while non-excavator categories are stabilizing, indicating a potential upgrade to comprehensive prosperity [9][10]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading manufacturers and component suppliers within the engineering machinery sector [9][10]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading manufacturers of complete machinery, component manufacturers, and high-altitude/ forklift manufacturers, as the sector is expected to experience a revenue inflection point in 2025 [9][10].