HUAXI Securities·2025-05-12 04:35Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The consumer services and retail sectors are under pressure, with notable performance in emotional consumption and tourism consumption [1][2] - In 2024, CITIC consumer services revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are expected to grow by 2% and decline by 24% respectively, while the retail sector is projected to see an 8% drop in revenue but a 6% increase in net profit [1][2] - The report highlights the divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with tourism services (+56%), human resources (+15%), and scenic areas (+3%) showing relative strength [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Services - In 2024, revenue for CITIC consumer services is projected to grow by 2%, while net profit is expected to decline by 24%. The tourism services sector shows a significant revenue increase of 56% [1] - For Q1 2025, the consumer services sector continues to face pressure, with revenues down by 0.1% and net profits down by 8% [2] Retail Sector - The retail sector is expected to see an 8% decline in revenue for 2024, but net profit is projected to increase by 6% [1] - Notable performances include supermarkets and convenience stores, which saw a 156% increase in net profit due to non-operating factors [1] OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The online booking rate for travel continues to rise, with OTA transaction volume expected to grow by 17.8% in 2024 [3] - Major players like Ctrip and Tongcheng are experiencing significant revenue growth, with Ctrip's international business revenue reaching 10% of total revenue [3][6] Scenic Areas - The scenic area sector is expected to see a 3% increase in revenue and a 30% increase in net profit for 2024, driven by strong performances from key players [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected to grow by 2%, but net profit is expected to decline by 18% [7] Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is facing pressure with a decline in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room), but major hotel groups are maintaining aggressive expansion plans [8][9] - For Q1 2025, major hotel groups are experiencing varying impacts on net profit, with some showing significant declines [9] Human Resources - The outsourcing business remains strong, with companies like Core International and Beijing Human Resources seeing revenue growth of 22% and 14% respectively [10] - Government subsidies are contributing to significant net profit increases for these companies [12] E-commerce and Services - The report highlights the growth of self-owned brands, with companies like Ruoyu Chen achieving a 29.26% increase in total revenue for 2024 [13] - The demand for agency operations is declining, but self-owned brands are driving high growth [13] Dining Sector - The dining sector is under pressure due to intense price competition, but some brands are showing resilience [14] - In Q1 2025, the dining sector shows signs of marginal improvement as price competition eases [14] Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is experiencing performance divergence, with strong brands outperforming the market amid rising gold prices [15] - In Q1 2025, brands like Chaohongji and Mankalon are showing significant revenue and profit growth [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-demand consumer products and travel services, as well as companies benefiting from overseas expansion [17]