李子园（605337）：甜牛奶小幅下滑，成本红利兑现

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [8] Core Views - The company's 2024 performance is expected to meet forecasts, with revenue projected at 1.415 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.22%, and net profit at 224 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.55% [2][5] - The company is actively exploring new channels such as e-commerce, which saw a revenue increase of 90.46% in 2024, contributing to 5.4% of total revenue [3][5] - The new management is focusing on product innovation to attract younger consumers, with new products like AD Calcium Milk and Vitamin Water being introduced [5] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company expects a net profit margin of 15.8%, down 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, but with a gross margin increase of 3.2 percentage points due to lower raw material costs [4] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 87%, which is an increase of 6 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The projected revenue growth rates for 2025-2027 are 5%, 6%, and 6%, respectively, with net profit growth rates of 14%, 11%, and 8% [5] Product and Regional Performance - In terms of product performance, the revenue from dairy beverages is expected to decline by 2% in 2024, while other categories are projected to grow by 128% [3] - Regionally, the company expects stable performance in East and Southwest China, while Central and Northeast regions are experiencing significant declines [3] Valuation Metrics - The projected P/E ratios for 2025-2027 are 20X, 18X, and 17X, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5] - The company's total market capitalization is approximately 5.16 billion yuan, with a current share price of 13.08 yuan [9]