Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★ [6] Report's Core View - Last week, the rebar 2510 contract declined by 2.39. Currently, the hot metal production supply is at a high level, and the market's expectation of steel mill production control has increased. However, the market still lacks overall rebound momentum and is likely to experience low - level fluctuations in the near future. It is recommended to wait and see [5][34][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - Futures Price: No specific data provided [7] - Spot Price: As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,150 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; in Tianjin, it was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [12] - Basis and Spread: No specific data provided [13] Important Market Information - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to promote a reasonable recovery of prices, smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism, improve the interest rate regulation framework, and reduce the comprehensive social financing cost [16] Supply - Side Situation - According to SMM, the planned rebar production in May is 931.53 million tons, a 4.03% increase from the actual production in April; the planned wire rod production in May is 368.94 million tons, a 5.30% increase from the actual production in April. MySteel's survey of 247 steel mills shows a blast furnace operating rate of 84.62%, a 0.29% month - on - month and 3.12% year - on - year increase; a blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 92.09%, a 0.09% month - on - month and 4.42% year - on - year increase; a steel mill profitability rate of 58.87%, a 2.59% month - on - month and 6.92% year - on - year increase; and a daily average hot metal output of 2.4564 million tons, a 0.22 - million - ton month - on - month increase. The capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples increased by 0.2% to 88.9%, with a daily average raw coal output of 2.021 million tons, a 0.4 - million - ton month - on - month increase, and raw coal inventory increased by 21.8 million tons to 5.799 million tons [33] Demand - Side Situation - In April 2025, the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 51.9, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease; the purchasing manager's index for the steel circulation industry was 48.8, a 3.8% month - on - month decrease [22] Inventory - Side Situation - No specific data provided [28][30] Fundamental Analysis - The same as the supply - side situation [33] 后市展望 - In April, the hot metal production increased significantly, reaching a five - year high. The market's expectation of steel mill production control has increased, but the market still lacks overall rebound momentum and is likely to experience low - level fluctuations in the near future [34] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [35]
螺纹周报-20250512
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-05-12 05:17